The study directly links emissions from fossil fuel producers to destructive heat waves

A new study directly has hundreds of major thermal waves since 2000 with emissions of fossil fuel and cement producers. Among her money, researchers conclude that up to a quarter of all heat waves since the beginning of this century was “actually impossible” without emissions from any of the 14 largest fuel and cement producers in the world.

The study, published on Wednesday in the magazine natureHe explains that greenhouse gas emissions of 180 are the largest producers of cement, oil and gas in the world have contributed greatly to climate change over the past two decades.

They linked emissions to 213 heat waves, and found that pollution made intense heat more likely and intense. Among those 213 events, 53 more than 10,000 times have become the result of emissions, according to researchers.

The struggle to hold the climate

Experts said the results could enhance legal efforts to hold the largest pollutants in the world responsible for the consequences of their emissions. In July, the International Court of Justice Ruling It may stipulate that you fail to prevent climate damage, may have to pay compensation, and in May, the German Supreme Court Ruling The main gates can be responsible for climate effects. And some American countries Ownership Pass Similar laws.

However, despite dozens of lawsuits foot Since 2004, no court has been punished for the troubles to cause climate change, researchers wrote in a accompanying point of view.

“I can not, as the world of the world, are legal responsibilities for these events,” Yan Celliel, the climate researcher at the Federal Institute of Technology in Switzerland, He said nature. “What I can say is that each of these carbon specialties contributes to heat waves, which makes it more intense and make it more likely.”

It tries to attribute the change of the climate caused by a person

This study is an example of attribution science, which specifically aims to determine how global warming causes a person to the specified harsh weather events, including heat waves. Evidence indicates that climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of future heat waves, but the science of chain of transmission aims to inform scientists with whether climate change has increased a certain heat wave that has already occurred.

With the support of contracts from the research, which was supported by the United Nations International Climate Change (IPCC), support is a strong methodology, but it comes with clear restrictions. The science of chain of transmission cannot tell us whether climate change “causes” a harsh weather event, but it can indicate how likely or severely likely in a world with climate change compared to a world without it.

180 “carbon specialization” produces half of all international emissions

Cellsel and his colleagues evaluated historical greenhouse gas emissions from 180 “carbon disciplines”, a group that includes fossil fuel companies, state -owned entities, fossil fuel emissions and cement produced by national countries.

In all, these sources were responsible for approximately 57 % of historical global emissions between 1850 and 2023.

Then the researchers used climate models to compare global temperature trends in a world with greenhouse gas emissions into a world without these emissions. After that, they estimated the effect of the global warming phenomenon that a person drives on 213 thermal waves recorded between 2000 and 2023, and to find direct ties to the highest gates and these harsh weather events.

“For a while, any individual contributor to climate change was said to make a very small or very widespread contribution to being associated with any specific effect. This emerging science, each of this paper and others, shows that this is incorrect,” Chris Calhan, the climate scientist at the University of Indiana, did not participate in the study, He said Associated Press.