The strange political playing book of Trump for China, India and Russia

President Donald Trump is following an extraordinary strategy – Russian President Vladimir Putin flirts with, holds fire on Beijing, all while running the bolts on a close ally: India.

Although India is one of the first countries to participate in negotiations with the Trump administration, there is no sign of concluding a deal with New Delhi, now staring at a 25 % secondary tariff or “penalty” on its purchases of Russian oil, which is scheduled to enter into force later this month.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen on Tuesday Criticism escalate Against India, he accused it of ventilation from cheap Russian oil imports and threatening to increase definitions of Indian goods.

“We have planned to raise the level of tariffs on India – this is a secondary tariff for the purchase of Russian oil,” Bisin told CNBC on Tuesday.

Earlier this week, White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro condemned the Asian giant’s dependence on Russian oil as “opportunistic” and undermined international efforts to isolate the Russian war economy.

“India is working as a global director of Russian oil, and turning crude into high -value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs,” Navarro said in high -value exports, while giving Moscow the dollars that it needs. ” An editorial for the Financial Times newspaper.

The sharp discourse threatens to reveal years of improving relations between Washington and New Delhi – where India says that the United States was targeting it unrelently on its Russian oil purchases.

“At the present time, the world is accustomed to the designated roads and sometimes contradictory as the Trump administration continues its agenda,” said Bert Hoffman, a professor at the East Asian Institute at Singapore National University in Singapore.

India has emerged as a pioneer of Russian oil, which has been sold at a discount since some Western countries gathered purchases and imposed restrictions on Russian exports to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He was the second largest buyer of Russian oil, importing 1.6 million barrels per day in the first half of this year, an increase of 50,000 barrels per hour in 2020, although he was still lagging behind the imports of China, which is valued at 2 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Department. Washington did not put a secondary tariff on China due to the purchases of Russian oil.

Repeat India It is the American administration that asked to buy Russian oil to maintain calm for markets, with reference to the European Union and even the existing trade in the United States with Moscow.

The country aimed at Washington, saying that the United States continues to import the uranium Floride of its nuclear industries, the palladium for the manufacture of the electric car, as well as fertilizers and chemicals from Russia. Government data showed that the US bilateral trade with Russia in 2024 amounted to 5.2 billion dollars, a decrease of 36 billion dollars in 2021.

bilateral Trade between New Delhi and Moscow The record number reached 68.7 billion dollars for the year ending in March 2025. In comparison, the European Union’s trade with Russia amounted European Commission data.

“India has been victims through this pressure tactics that the Trump administration is trying to implement. Trump is clearly used to have pressure tactics against Russia,” Michael Kogman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington -based Wilson Research Center, told CNBC.Squawk box asia“

Another factor that defines the United States’ approach to India is that Trump feels “affected”, on how Modi He undermines his attempt to claim credit To play a role in India, Pakistan, the ceasefire, confirmed Cojman.

In addition to Trump’s grievances is “India’s unwillingness to reduce barriers” exports of American agricultural products such as soy and corn beans, and Kevin Chen Xian, a co -research colleague at S. College. Rajaratnam for international studies.

Although the meeting does not seem to have produced meaningful steps towards the ceasefire in Ukraine – it was our goal before the summit – but Trump was Description of the meeting As a “product”.

Talk to A joint news conference after the talksPutin repeated that “in order for the resolution of conflicts in Ukraine in the long and lasting term, all the root causes of the crisis must be eliminated … all legitimate fears in Russia must be taken into account.”

Kirill Dmitryv, one of Putin’s best negotiators, praised Monday talks in Washington as an “important day of diplomacy”, focusing on Moscow’s opposition to any short -term ceasefire deal with Ukraine.

Matt Jerkin, the chief geopolitical and strategy in the United States at BCA Research, said the pressure on the lever … pressure on India and Russia via India “to obtain a trade agreement with the BCA Research Agreement to the maximum … pressure on India and Russia via India.” This will eventually help the Republicans in the mid -term elections.

While India faces a very declining tariff to buy it from Russian crude, China, which has been the largest importer of Russian crude, has survived these drawings. Trump said Last Friday, he did not think about the revenge definitions In China to buy Russian oil, but it may be considered within two or three weeks.

China’s Russian oil purchases rose To 46 % of total exports from Russia In the first half of this year, from 34 % in 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration, followed by India, which imported about 36 % of Russia’s supplies.

When asked about China’s role in the purchases of Russian oil, Bessent suggested that Beijing’s imports were less terrible in the Trump administration because it was already a great buyer even before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Stephen Olson, a senior visitor colleague at the Isov Ishak Institute, said that the completion of China may also reflect Trump’s desire not to overcome a highly potential summit

Olson added that the secondary definitions of India may be a “Russian arc shot” to show that the United States can increase pressure by expanding a similar tariff to China, if Russia is not more appropriate.

After weeks of escalating tensions, Beijing and Washington agreed in May to suspend huge duties and alleviate many punitive measures imposed in April, as the two sides continued to work to distribute a permanent deal.

Beijing benefited from its absolute dominance on the rare crucial land of the military and industrial use in its negotiations with Washington, while maintaining narrow control over the exports of critical minerals.

Kogman said that the relationship with China is complicated, and the Trump administration has not yet come out “a clear and coherent policy towards China. Sometimes it seems to want to compete with China economically. At other times, it seems that it wants to reach a kind of understanding, or a vehicle.”