The “safety installment” has disappeared in the college almost, but mainly because many other degrees have abandoned the search for work

The team led by the chief economist in Goldman Jean Hatzius themselves asked: Will new university graduates face difficulty in finding jobs? Well, yes: “Modern data indicates that the labor market for new university graduates has weakened at a time when the broader labor market appeared.” The team managed to extract three long -term directions by comparing the performance of the total market for graduates with non -total graduates, with suggestive results about the so -called “safety installment” for higher education.

“Safety Premium” to obtain a university degree

The Goldman team found a honesty gap in unemployment rates between new university graduates and young workers without a certificate. In May 2025, the unemployment rate for university graduates born from 22 to 27 years was 3.8 %, an increase of the usual 3.3 % during full employment periods. Over the past year, the average of 12 months of this group rose to 4.6 %. But the real story is in the comparison: the “safety installment” of unemployment for university graduates -less than the possibility of being unemployed compared to non -academic peers -decreased to -2.8 points only, is much lower than the average point -4.1 points in the previous strong labor markets.

This means that although university graduates are still less vulnerable to unemployed than non -degree holders, the feature is now marginal. The gap is the youngest for decades, raising questions about the permanent value of university education in today’s economy.

Goldman Sachs

Weak rates for setting functions for graduates

Another disturbing trend is low function rates for new graduates. Historically, university graduates can expect to find work more quickly than their non -academic peers. But over the past decade, this gap has pressed greatly. In 2025, the job determination rate for university graduates is only 0.9 percentage points of non-gradient holders-far from the 8.3-point gap in previous full recruitment periods.

This pressure is partially periodic, which reflects a strong recovery after childbirth in low -skilled sectors such as construction, manufacturing and retail trade. But it is also a structural: The industries that usually rent university graduates – such as information services, financing and professional/business services – have seen growth in slow jobs, making it difficult for new graduates job tasks.

Goldman Sachs

Manpower participation: mixed image

While the unemployment gap narrowed, the participation gap expanded. Since 1997, young workers who have no university degree have become less likely to search for work, as their participation rate decreased by seven percentage points, compared to two points decreased for university graduates.

Goldman Sachs

An increasing share of young people in both groups outside the workforce because they are at school-a positive sign of long-term results. But among the bearers other than the degree, there is a disturbing height in those who do not work because they are “unable to work” for reasons other than disability, illness, retirement, or child care. This group has multiplied over the past thirty years, indicating that some improvement in non -school unemployment may be due to the launch of workers who have been fully frustrated from the workforce.

For this story, luck The artificial intelligence is used to help with a preliminary draft. Check an editor of the accuracy of the information before publishing.