Singapore indicated the risk of artistic recession due to global tariff tensions, even after its economy began in 2025 a faster observation than expected.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry said in its final estimate on Thursday that the gross domestic product grew by 3.9 % in the three months until March of the previous year. The number is compared to the average expectations for the growth of 3.6 % in the Bloomberg Economics Survey, and the advanced government appreciation by 3.8 %.
On a quarterly quarterly basis, GDP decreased by 0.6 %, compared to 1 % contraction. The Singaporean dollar and the reference correspondence index were changed in the aftermath of the report.
MTI maintained expectations recently reduced for the growth of 2025 GDP by 0 % -2 %, as the American customs tariff is darkened on expectations for global trade. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned earlier that the recession could not be excluded.
“A technical stagnation, where you have a quarter of the consecutive negative growth, which is a quarter to a quarter, is a possibility,” said Pay Swan Jin, a permanent secretary at the Ministry of Commerce, to reporters. “This is not necessarily equivalent to full economic recession,” as shown in the numbers of GDP on an annual basis.
The last time Singapore was a technical stagnation that was at the height of the Covid-19 in 2020. Before that, the city of the city had four consecutive quarterly cramps from a quarter in June 2008.
The best result in the first quarter was driven by manufacturing and export activity, as companies rushed to avoid imposing the highest American definitions.
“This momentum is now” at risk of “the risk of fading”, adding that “financial temporary stores and the creation of pre -emptive policies in Singapore to reduce any external shocks.”
The data shows how the American -Chinese trade war and slow recovery in China were deeper into the region at the beginning of the year. Since then, the world’s largest economist has called for the armistice, and they agreed on a 90 -day negotiating window, according to which they reduced the customs tariff on each other’s goods.
“The global economic view remains mysterious due to the great uncertainty, while tilting the risk to the negative side,” said Pay.
He said that uncertainty may lead to a greater decrease in economic activity, adding that the restoration of customs tariff actions may lead to a full global trade war. He also warned that universal inflation disorders and stagnation risk can shake capital flows.
On this background, the growth of the “sectors directed abroad” is expected to slow down, such as manufacturing, wholesale, transportation and storage, this year. The financing and insurance sectors will also be weighted through weaker trading activity, while expectations for the sectors facing the consumer are faded.
With commercial accounting for three times the gross domestic product, Singapore is still severely exposed to any constant slowdown in global trade. The Ministry of Commerce said that it would change its growth expectations as needed.
The deputy director of the administrative director, Edward Robinson, said that the monetary authority in Singapore will “comprehensively” in the period before the July Policy meeting.
“The position of politics is still appropriate yet,” he said.
Last month, MAS reduced monetary policy settings for the second time this year.
Bloomberg Economics expect 0.9 % growth this year, although he sees some upward risks from the 90 -day US -Chinese trade truce. Another supportive worker for Singapore was the result of this month’s elections.
“The strong offer of the ruling Labor Party in Singapore in the general elections on May 3 reduces uncertainty in a critical turn – as companies and investors move US President Donald Trump to global commercial and security relations,” said Tamara Mast Hinderson, economist at Aminburg Economic.
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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