The return of artificial intelligence experts from the amazing China: the American network is very weak, and the race may actually end

For American artificial intelligence researchers, this is almost unimaginable. In the United States, High request artificial intelligence It collides with a fragile power network, which is a type of extreme bottle neck that Goldman Sachs Warn It can suffocate the growth of industry.

In China, MA continued, it is considered a “solution problem.”

What, a well -known expert in Chinese technology and founder of the media company Technology Tanna ChinaShe took her team on the way to get a direct look at the country’s artificial intelligence progress. She said luck Although it is not an energy export, she attended sufficient meetings and spoke to a sufficient number of people who are out of a conclusion that should send chills below the spine of the Silicon Valley: in China, it is no longer enough energy building for data centers for discussion.

“This is a blatant contradiction with the United States, where the growth of artificial intelligence is increasingly associated with discussions about energy consumption at the data center and network restrictions,” she wrote on X.

It is difficult to overestimate the risks. Data center construction is the AI Advancement foundation, spending on new centers now Consumer spending is replaced in terms of influencing the gross domestic product of the United States-and this is a matter of concern since consumers spending two-thirds of the pie. McKinsey Projects between 2025 and 2030, companies around the world will need to Investment 6.7 trillion dollars in a new data center capacity to keep pace with the artificial intelligence breed.

in Modern search noteStifel Nicolaus warned against a waving correction on the horizon on the S&P 500, as this CAPEX Capex boom is expected to be a single -time infrastructure building, while consumer spending is clearly.

However, the clear limit factor for the development of the data center in the United States, according to Deluette The industry wiping, is the pressure on the power network. City power networks Very weak That only some companies Building their power stations Instead of relying on existing networks. The audience grows increasing Increase energy bills In Ohio, the electricity bill for the model family has increased at least $ 15 this summer of data centers-while energy companies are preparing to change the increasing sea.

Goldman Sachs Tires The crisis is simply: “The ultimate energy demand from artificial intelligence outperforms the development cycles that continued to hold the network, creating a critical bottleneck.”

Meanwhile, David Fishman, a Chinese electricity expert who spent years to track energy development, said, said luck This is in China, electricity is not even a question. On average, China adds more electricity demand from the entire annual consumption to Germany, every year. The entire rural provinces are starring in the surface, with one boycott coinciding with the electricity supply in India.

“American policy makers should hope that China will remain a competitor, not an aggressor,” said Fishman. “Because now they cannot compete effectively on the energy infrastructure front.”

China has an increase in the supply of electricity

Fishman explained that the dominance of calm electricity in China is the result of decades of exaggeration and deliberate investment in each layer of the energy sector, from generating to a transfer to the next nuclear generation.

Fishman said that the country’s margin in the country has never decreased to less than 80 % – 100 % in the country, which means that he has constantly maintained at least the weakness of the capacity it needs. He added that China treat them as a comfortable way “to enjoy excessive dependence.”

Fishman said that this level of pillow is unimaginable in the United States, as regional networks usually operate with a 15 % reserve margin and sometimes less, especially during the harsh weather. In places such as California or Texas, officials often issue officials Warnings About the red rhetoric conditions When the order is expected to return to the system. This leaves a small space to absorb a rapid load that increases the infrastructure of Amnesty International, at Fishman NTOED.

The gap in preparation is blatant: While the United States is already facing political and economic Battles About whether the network can continue, China is working from an abundance site.

Fishman said that even if the demand for artificial intelligence in China cannot be accompanied by renewable projects quickly, the country can take advantage of the inactive coal factories to fill the gap with the construction of more sustainable sources. “It is not better,” I admit, “but it is implemented.”

In contrast, the United States must Stampede He said to bring the capacity of the new generation, and often face delays that allow for years, local opposition, and fragmented market rules.

Structural governance differences

Support of devices feature is a difference in governance. Fishman said that in China, energy planning is coordinated through long -term technocratic policy that defines market bases before investments. This model guarantees that the infrastructure construction occurs in anticipation of the request, not in response to this.

“They have been prepared to strike Grand Slams,” Fishmann noted. “The United States, at best, can get a base.”

In the United States, large -scale infrastructure projects depend greatly on private investment, but most investors expect return within three to five years: much shorter for energy projects that may take a decade of time for construction and establishment.

“The capital is really biased towards the short -term returns,” he said, noting that the Silicon Valley has turned billions to “the ninth repetition of software as a service” while fighting energy projects for financing.

In China, in contrast, the state directs money towards the strategic sectors before demand, and acceptance will not succeed in the project but to ensure the ability to capacity when needed. Without general funding for long -term stakes at risk, he said that the American political and economic system is simply not prepared to build the future network.

Cultural attitudes enhance this approach. In China, renewable energy sources are framing as the cornerstone of the economy because it is logical economically and strategically, and not because it carries moral weight. Coal use is not depicted as a sign on the villain, as it will be among some circles in the United States – it is simply seen as old. Fishman has argued that this practical framework allows policy makers to focus on efficiency and results instead of political battles.

For Fishman, ready -made meals are sharp. Without a significant shift in how to build the United States and finance its energy infrastructure, China’s progress will accommodate only.

He said: “The gap in ability will only continue to become more clear – and grow in the coming years.”