The recession appeared as disturbing due to the current economic turmoil

The economic uncertainty brought by the president Donald Trump The customs tariff for American commercial partners raises fears that the economy may face stagnation if the circumstances continue.

The recession is a term used in general to describe a scenario in it Economic growth It is stagnant while he also suffers from high inflation, which leads to high prices of consumers and may contribute to the weakness of the labor market, and ultimately, high unemployment.

Definitions are taxes on imported goods, which are paid by importers who usually pass some or all the high costs they face to consumers through high prices, a dynamic that has raised concerns about the return of inflation. The inflation forecast for consumers has increased in recent months in the investigative studies conducted by the Federal Reserve before the high prices caused by the customs tariff that are dealt with for many consumer goods.

Modern economic data has added to concerns about the emergence of a possible recession. Data issued by the Ministry of Commerce last week showed that the US GDP (GDP) was contracted at an annual rate of 0.3 % in the first quarter of 2025. This represented the first separate contraction in the American economy since the first quarter of 2022.

The American economy slows down sharply, and shrinks 0.3 % in the first quarter with the weight of definitions

“Even if the weak gross domestic product today may be partially reflected in companies trying to advance the customs tariff, it was still a warning against the arc,” said Ellen Zintner, the chief economist of Morgan Stanley, to the report, on the report last Wednesday.

David Banson, the administrative partner and chief investment official at the Wealth Management Company The Bansen, said, Rawd environment It will be a challenge to the federal reserve, as the central bank is looking to balance its dual mandate of strengthening stable prices and the maximum employment.

The American trade deficit set a record in March

“There is nothing almost nothing Central Bank “You can do about the recession because, in this case, the reason for the high prices is not financially,” Bnson explained: “It will not be because there is a lot of money that is chasing goods, it will be because of the external upward pressure on prices as a result of the customs tariff policy and the new defense prices is completely higher than the central bank.”

Bannon went on to say that while the Trump administration is expected to decline to the largest part of the definitions at some point, allowing the high prices to be improper, the uncertainty surrounding the duration and extent of the tariff policy may cause Economic slowdown When companies retract investment while waiting for more clarity.

“I do not think that price increases will be permanent, mostly because I think the Trump administration will eventually end in the big walk on most of the definitions they threaten,” he said. “I think the biggest issue is the recession, which is, what is the slowdown in economic growth due to policies?”

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“This is my greatest occupy, but I don’t really have the ability to answer it. I really don’t have the ability to get rid of how things will go, because I do not know if he will back down from all tariffs tomorrow,” Banson said. “The size of the economic impact and the length of the economic impact are really directly linked to the continuation of a lot of uncertainty, and we have no clarity in that now.”