The price of oil returns with the flow of crude through a non -affected hormonal strait

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The oil markets have ignored Israel’s threat to topple the Iranian regime, as raw exports from the Middle East are not yet affected by the escalating conflict.

Times analysis of the financial Times for ship tracking data shows that there was no significant impact on the movement of ships through the embarrassing strait of the hormone. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of the KPLER Energy Analysis Company, said that its systems also have also shown any decrease in the number of oil tankers crossing the strait.

About 21 million barrels of oil from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates pass daily through the narrow waterway that separates the Islamic Republic from the Gulf states, and represents about a third of the oil supplies transported in the sea in the world.

“The market is reassured about the fact that we have witnessed attacks on energy infrastructure, but they were restricted to local energy systems in both countries.”

Brent crude, the international oil standard, increased by 5.5 percent early Monday to more than $ 78 a barrel, before giving up all these gains to trade 4.1 percent with a little bit of $ 71.17. Less than 4 percent has increased since the fighting began last week.

During the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that changing the regime “could definitely be the result of Israel’s attacks on the Islamic Republic after he launched strikes against at least two factories from treating Iranian gas and fuel depots in Tehran. Iran Hit the pipelines and transport lines that serve the largest refinery in Israel.

However, Israel has not targeted the main oil export stations in Iran on an outside island and Tehran did not seek to disrupt the shipment via the hormone strait.

“I think the goal of Israel is to make internal logistical services more difficult for Iran, instead of international markets,” said Valekashi.

He added that less than normal carriers from the usual appear to be heading to the Iranian outpost to load oil, but this is likely to be a temporary preventive measure, as happened after Israel and Iran air strikes in October last year. He said that one of the tankers loaded during the weekend, but it seems that others have slowed their approach to the facility, who is responsible for 90 percent of Iranian oil exports.

Iran currently produces about 3.2 million barrels of oil The day and exporting a little more than half, almost exclusively to China.

While the Iranian regime has historically threatened to prevent the Strait of Hormuz in the event of the country being attacked, the merchants are betting that Tehran is less likely to seek to disrupt the shipment in view of improved relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the need to preserve its flowing exports.

Tehran targeted ships in the strait during the Iranian war in the 1980s, and was recently accused of attacks on tankers near the strait in 2019. However, he was never able to completely prevent traffic. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia regained diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023.

“Although there is concern about the closure of the broader strategy of the hormone strategic strait, () we consider this danger very low since it has never happened in history,” JPMorgan’s commodity team wrote in a note.

The UK Maritime Trade Office said on Monday that there was a slight decrease in the number of large shipping ships wandering in the strait during the past week, but added that he had not specified any information indicating the siege or closure.

Janv Shah, an oil analyst at Rystad Energy, said that the siege would do the markets to an “unknown zone”, but this was an impossible result.

Instead of closing the strait, an alternative Iranian response can lead to Tehran to hit the oil fields in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which is accessible drone, as analysts say.

In 2019, it was widely believed that Iran was behind a drone attack on the largest oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia, which temporarily reduced the Kingdom’s raw production by more than half and briefly paid global oil prices by up to 20 percent.

However, traders are betting that any such action will not only play the role of the last resort, according to Valcashi.

He said: “At the present time, no actor in the region, especially the two who are currently participating in the conflict, sees the benefit of hitting the critical energy infrastructure.”

Additional reports from Chris Cook