The oil markets suffer with the escalation of Iran’s tensions, Israel Oil and gas news

Israel Hit the military and nuclear sitesAnd Iran’s revengeIt has already shook the tense global supply chains.

While airlines suspend flights to Tel Aviv, Taraan and other airports throughout the region, oil companies, shipping companies and organizational agencies are scrambling amid increasing fears that the main trade routes such as the hormone strait can be arrested in the crossing.

Commercial charging still passes through the hormonal strait, but with increased caution. Iran had previously threatened to close this critical commercial road in response to Western pressure. Even the suggestion of such a move has already sent shock waves through global markets, and the price of oil has risen.

The latest speech of US President Donald Trump has not done much to alleviate those concerns. He warned that if Iran did not do.Hold a deal“There can be more” death and destruction. “

“If it is known that the United States is involved in any attacks, the risk of escalation is increasing dramatically,” Jacob Larsen, chief safety and security official at the Bimco Shipping Association, told Reuters.

High oil prices

As of 4:00 pm in New York (20:00 GMT), Brent crude prices, which are the international standard, are 5 percent higher than yesterday’s market.

Future oil contracts have increased by more than 13 percent at one point, reaching its highest levels since January.

Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic commercial road between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which is almost through which 20 percent of the world Global oil output trips are likely to pay oil prices up. This can increase inflationary pressures worldwide, especially in the United States.

The price increase comes in the wake of the consumer price index report better than expected in the United States earlier this week, showing that prices increased by only 0.1 percent for this month. Energy costs remain the main inflation engine. In fact, gasoline prices decreased by 2.6 percent during this period. The feelings of consumers also jumped, for the first time in six months, as the customs tariffs diluted. However, the new conflict can reduce the relief expressed by American consumers, according to analysts from JPMorgan Chase.

Wait and see

“Sustainable gains in energy prices can have a little impact on inflation, which leads to a long trend of cooling consumer prices in the United States,” said JPMorgan Chase. “We still believe that any political policies may push oil and inflation higher, which is likely to result in Trump’s main goal of maintaining low energy prices – a promise of the campaign,” analyst Natasha Kinifa, Patrick Keda and Liopa Savinova wrote.

The markets have decreased more broadly on the news. S&P 500 decreased by 1.1 percent, and Dow Jones Industrial Valled fell 1.7 and NASDAQ by 1.3 percent lower.

“Today, as you can see from the markets, whether it is S&P, whether it is Bitcoin, things are stable or flat. Therefore, there is little waiting and vision. The oil is simply affected because Iran is a large part of the global supplies. Taufiq Rahim, independent geopolitical strategic expert and manager for consulting for 2040, said on the island.

If the charging is suspended through the critical corridor, even temporarily, the International Energy Agency said it is well equipped with it Emergency reserves launchIf necessary. However, this comes with the risk of exhaustion.

There are 1.2 billion barrels in their strategic reserves. The world uses about 100 million barrels of oil per day.

“If it rises to the level of closing the Strait of Hormuz, this will now be the biggest oil shock in all ages,” said Matt Gatein, the chief geopolitical strategy and vice president of BCA Research, a total economy research company.

Secretary -General OPEC Haytham Al -Ghis criticized the Union’s agreement with IEA for showing that it could launch strategic reserves, saying that it “raises false warnings and projects of feeling fear of the market by repeating the unnecessary need to use oil emergency shares.”

This comes amid the pressure of the group of oil producing countries to increase production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ members agreed to raise production by 411,000 barrels for the month of July.

The Strait of Hormuz is still open at the present time. Countries, including Greece and the United Kingdom, advised ships to avoid the Gulf of Aden, and the body of water between Yemen and Somalia, which connects waterways close to Israel, and registration of all trips through the strait, according to the documents that were seen for the first time.

More escalation on the horizon?

Iran can attack Iraq to reduce global oil supplies for more escalation tensions. In January 2024, Iran attacked Iraq, which said a revenge for armed attacks on its territory, the New York Times reported.

“We must assume that we will lose the production of Iranian and Iraqi oil, which makes us to the extent that we can see from five to seven million barrels per day,”

Gertin believes that Iran will do this to excite the West.

“They should come out some oil supplies, but they do not attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or close the Strait of Hermoz because, of course, would guarantee the United States entering the conflict. They need to target some regional production (where) they can have reasonable denial (and blame) some of the armed group.”