The next two weeks can redefine technology

There is always something in danger when it comes to investment. But at the present time, it is definitely intelligence to keep your eyes open to the main disturbances of the market.

With the stability of the risk market in the American stock market, Wall Street entered a pivotal extension during the next 14 trading sessions It may determine its direction in the short term. Ghalib Its weight is greatly over the feeling of investors.

There is no more vulnerable sector than technology.

What happens in the next two weeks?

Investors will move in a thick calendar characterized by the latest employment numbers, decisive inflation scale, and the decision of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve, as each provides evidence about the path of monetary policy.

Bloomberg assumes These events may crystallize the Wall Street road for the rest of the year.

Technology in the spotlight

There is no more clear place in the market than technological stocks, which prompted a lot of progress this year.

The so -called “wonderful seven” Calculate more than 30 % of the S&P 500 weighting. Their performance can be dictated in the next two weeks whether the broader market is embracing shocks or stumbling.

The last profits confirmed both flexibility and risks. For example, NVIDIA has published standard quarterly revenues against the background of the demand for artificial intelligence, but analysts warn of its noble evaluation of a small space for disappointment. Apple and Cloud and Microsoft’s iPhone and Microsoft’s iPhone and Microsoft’s IPHONG and Microsoft course, with any smoothness that might amplify across the index.

History indicates that the fluctuation in technology can quickly extend out. In September 2020, a sharp decrease in the huge technology surveyed trillions on the market within weeks. This year, the assessments appear again: Nasdak is trading near the profits to the front 30 times, much higher than its average in the long run.

If calm is now, why is the anxiety?

The stock markets remain unusually calm. S&P 500 did not suffer from a 2 % decrease in 91 consecutive trading sessions, which is the longest extension since July 2024. At the same time, the VIX oscillator remained less than the 20th threshold. Almost without interruption Since late June.

Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, warns that while the correction is reasonable, it calls to withdraw from 5 % to 10 % in the fall. But the index It is still possible to recover towards it 6800 to 7000 points by the end of the year, according to Al -Eqtisad newspaper reports.

“Investors are properly assumed to be careful in September,” Bloomberg told me. “The federal reserve re -overcomes the Dofish cutting cycle after a long stop. This makes it difficult for merchants to put them.”

Seasonal risks and excessive value

September is historically one of the weakest months of shares. Bloomberg notes Over the past three decades, the average S&P 500 decreased in September, as it decreased in the past four years, Add weight to caution.

Moreover, the index is traded about 22 times from profits forward. This is the level of evaluation that is seen only during the Dot-Com bubble and technological madness after birth.

“We buy the major technology,” said Tatiana Bonche, head and founder of Financial Tax 1, told Bloomberg. “But these shares have been expensive at the present time, so we reserve some cash on the margin and wait for any decent retreat before we add more to this position.”

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Summary table: Market dynamics at a glance

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Are the risks outperforming the return?

The message from the Wall Street bull is clear: it remains careful in the short term, even taking into account the recovery at the end of the year.

Unusual calm in fluctuations may be the calm of investors in contentment with self -consent, which paves the stage for a sudden sale if the Federal data or reserves are challenged. But if Outlocked for politics is favorable, the markets may resume its march up.

This window is formed for a lesser week, such as a routine market cycle and more like a crossroads between correction and collapse.

“I expect this gathering to stop in the stocks soon,” said the famous bull Ed Yardini from Yardini Research, Bloomberg.

He said: “The market deducts a lot of happy news, so if the consumer price index is hot and there is a strong report on jobs, traders may suddenly conclude that the price cuts are not necessarily a deal that has been completed, which may lead to a short sale.” “But the shares will be recovered as soon as the traders realize that the Federal Reserve cannot reduce prices due to a good reason: the economy is still strong.”