The markets expect to reduce customs tariffs, the highest level in 2025

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin (PBUH) and American Trade Representative Jameson Jarir hold a press conference in Geneva on May 12, 2025, to give details of “great progress” after a two -day closed meeting between the United States and Chinese officials aimed at ending the tariff war.

Fabrice Covery AFP | Gety pictures

Stoxx

Analysts and strategists said on Monday that the arrangement of the United States and the new China could judge feelings of risks, and benefit from American stocks and assets.

On Monday’s customers, Tae Hoy, the chief market strategy in Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management, said that the deal that was revealed in Geneva was better than expected, but the uncertainty remained.

“The volume of reducing the customs tariff is greater than expected,” he said, although it indicated that it will be difficult for Beijing and Washington to reach a more realistic trade order in just three months.

“The 90 -day period may not be sufficient for both sides to reach a detailed agreement, but it maintains pressure on the negotiation process,” Hui said. “We are still waiting for more details about other conditions of this agreement, for example, whether China will restore the rare land export restrictions.”

However, HUI admitted the positive market reaction to the news.

“In general, we expect the market to return to a feeling of dangers in the short term,” he said. “It may reduce pressure on the (federal reserve) to reduce prices at the present time.”

The end of the narration of “selling America”?

Jordan RochesER, Head of the currency strategy in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and CEO of Mizuho Bank in London, described the deal as “much better news than expected” in a Monday morning. He said that the developments mean ” Listing “selling America” (It gets) pressure. “

American assets, including dollarand Cabinet and SharesI saw the pioneer Volatility In the weeks that Trump has exposed the full veil of his definition plans.

On Monday morning, US dollar indexThat measures the value of greenery against the main currency basket, increased 1 %. Return on the standard Treasury bonds for 10 years in the United States It was rising with 6 basis points with a decrease in the price.

According to Rothsters, the 90-day deal takes the effective tariff for the United States-what Chinese companies actually pay-from 108.8 % to 27 %, which indicated that it is much higher than the market consensus than the reduction to 50 % to 60 %.

“It is worth noting how (officials) have reduced the requirements of the talks to continue in 90 days at the press conference with” as long as the talks are constructive. “What this means for international trade is that the actual” tariff wall “has been reduced to something more applicable, and also raises market prices for other countries to obtain similar treatment when there are talks with the United States.”

The best results of commercial negotiations mean that stocks may gather more, according to Wall Street strategies.

“Although the arrows recovered, there is still a lot of dispersion (between) homes and exporters under the hood, but the risk premium in dollars is still high, and the total sites are light/defensive,” Emmanuel Kao, head of the European stock strategy in Barclays, said in a statement via e -mail. “Pain trading in the upward trend means that the stocks have an area to overcome it.”

“Stay up”

Meanwhile, strategists at Deutsche Bank said that their feelings had greatly strengthened the morning news. They now expect the US shares to outperform its European competitors in the short term.

“Today’s announcement exceeds our constructive expectations,” they said. “In our opinion, this advertisement is not only better than we expected, but also better than the market that he expected again in March.

“Although it is difficult to know how this will develop after a period of 90 days, the implications for the markets are clearly supporting … staying optimistic and we are thinking about returning to the sectors exposed to Chinese tariff (previous cars, health care and chips).”

Michel Emile Jensen, Sidbank’s chief analyst, said the 90 -day tariff was a great urgency in the US -Chinese trade war.

“(It) removes a large part of the uncertainty related to global trade – at least at the present time,” CNBC told CNBC after announcing the news.

“The deal may be temporary, but the deal is better than expected and may ignite positive impacts on global trade and increase the demand for container shipping,” said Sidbank. Shipping giant shares Marsk It was more than 12 % on Monday morning.

“More than that, the temporary deal may enhance the impact of the front loading, which increases the stocks before the exacerbation of the trade war.”

Dream scenario “

As it was a reaction to the news, Dan Evez from Wedbush said he believed that the United States of Chinese deal was “clearly the beginning of the broader and most comprehensive negotiations”, describing the news as a “great victory for the market and the bulls.”

“We expect that all of these tariff numbers will move significantly in the coming months with the progress of deals,” he said in a note. “The main offer to the weekend was to hold some winding escalation from the American/China definitions and agree on more talks … Instead in the dream scenario this morning, he got out of these talks with huge discounts to the mutual tariff.”

Evis, who is known for his upcoming technology expectations, argued that the agreement means new levels in the markets and technology shares were “now on the table in 2025”.

Trade is expected to resume between the world’s largest economists after a reduction in the definitions, and vice versa Decrease in shipping ships and shipping containers Since the announcement of definitions in early April.

Lindsay James, an investment strategy expert in Coierter, said that the new deal “was not as good as the level of 20 % that was present before the so -called liberation day,” but added that the temporary agreement would enable “a large percentage of commercial CV, albeit at a little higher prices.”