The key to understanding Putin? He knows that he will outlast Western leaders

Many believe that history is largely determined by personal relationships between world leaders. The twenty-five-year interaction between Vladimir Putin and foreign leaders constitutes a fascinating case study of this theory.

Recently, he invited Russian President Narendra Modi to a private dinner at his home, and the Indian Prime Minister declared that he was deeply touched by this gesture. Chinese President Xi Jinping has described Putin as his best friend. At the 2024 BRICS summit, Putin said such friendships provide the basis for a “new world order.”

In the past, more adversarial leaders received different treatment.

For example, there was evidence that Putin played psychological games with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. At a 2007 meeting in Sochi, at which they discussed energy supplies to Europe, the Russian president brought his large Labrador dog. Putin knew that Merkel was afraid of dogs — the result of being attacked by one years ago — and this bothered her during their conversation.

in Putin’s tripIn a new two-hour CBC documentary marking a quarter of a century since he took power, former Canadian Foreign Minister Peter MacKay said he was shocked by Putin’s behavior with Merkel.

“It speaks to a dark nature, a flaw in this man’s character that crosses all lines in terms of diplomacy and just human nature,” MacKay said.

Soviet-born Australian journalist Zoya Shevtalovich, who writes for Politico Europe, told CBC that Putin is “well informed, knows what people’s buttons are and pushes them.”

“It’s clear that he wants to dominate all the time. He wants to prove that he’s the strongest man in the room. He always has to have someone to insult,” said Konstantin Eggert, a Lithuania-based journalist who works for German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle. “.

Putin’s dealings with foreign leaders appear to be based on his awareness that he will outlast them. He is playing the long game to achieve the desired results. He will likely enjoy Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, especially since Trump has said a lot of negative things about Ukraine and NATO.

Luke Harding, former Moscow bureau chief of The Guardian and author The Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival“He believes that Western leaders are naive and short-lived,” Putin says.

“They are a kind of colorful butterfly that flutters a little and then goes away when winter comes. Whereas Putin, who we know is close to Stalin, does not have to worry about annoying things like elections, he also knows what he will do in two or four years.”

“We made a mistake in judging Putin.”

Shortly after Putin assumed the presidency in 2000, George W. Bush was elected President of the United States. He came to meet Putin at a summit hosted by Slovenia, where he expressed his immediate judgment on his Russian counterpart, saying his famous phrase: “I looked into the man’s eyes… and I was able to recognize his soul.”

“I think George W. Bush regrets saying that now, because it’s not clear exactly where Putin’s soul lies,” John Bolton, a former US ambassador to the United Nations and national security adviser who has met Putin several times, told CBC.

“But (the comment) was an indication of the optimism we felt that the Cold War was over, and that we could find a way to overcome differences and work together against what we saw as common threats,” Bolton said. “I think we can see that we misjudged Putin badly.”

Americans were not the only ones who fell under Putin’s spell. On a visit to the UK in 2003, he got the royal treatment, touring London alongside the Queen in a horse-drawn carriage. This was a shock to Russian dissident journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza.

“In the same week that Vladimir Putin’s government shut down the last independent TV channel (in Russia), he had a lavish state visit to London and a tour with the Queen of England,” Kara-Murza told CBC.

He notes that Putin has also been arresting and imprisoning political opponents. “It was clear from the beginning, and yet… Western democratic countries deliberately chose to turn a blind eye to all these domestic authoritarian abuses.”

CBC requested an interview with Putin, but his press secretary declined the invitation.

Greater interest in Ukraine

Starting in 2012, Putin became more forceful in dealing with Western countries, which became clear in his first private meeting with then-French President François Hollande. Putin was concerned about NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe and the missiles installed there.

As Hollande told CBC: “He asked for a piece of paper, which is very rare for a meeting between heads of state. On it he drew a map of Europe and placed the missiles that were stationed in the central part of Europe.” He directly threatened his security actually “He wanted to play the victim — ‘I’m being attacked’ — to better justify what he might have to do to defend himself.”

Hollande was shocked by Putin’s psychological tactics in their personal meetings. “It’s no coincidence that he trained with the KGB. The KGB was all about ‘I threaten you, but I also embrace you in an almost personal relationship’. I always play the double game: ‘I threaten you, but I’m ready to talk.’

By 2013, Putin had turned his attention back to Ukraine, urging pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to cancel a proposed new treaty with Europe. The pro-Western majority population in Ukraine rebelled, and Maidan Square in Kiev was filled with anti-Russian protesters, instigated by European and American politicians.

Yanukovych tried to suppress the Maidan protests using police violence, but the demonstrators stuck to their position. After many casualties, Yanukovych fled the country by helicopter in the dead of night.

Politico journalist Shevtalovich says this was a severe blow to Putin.

“He saw Ukraine as part of Russia, and he saw Euromaidan as essentially the first part of a potential uprising that could eventually remove him from power. So it was unacceptable for him to be swept up by Euromaidan and to be swept up in these events.” “. The protests removed his man from the job.”

Amid the joyful celebrations in Kyiv, Putin was plotting revenge. He had decided to divide Ukraine by seizing the Crimean Peninsula in the south and the Russian-speaking majority regions in the east of the country. In 2014, he deployed Russian soldiers without any markings on their uniforms to Crimea. They became known as the “Little Green Men.”

When Putin was asked about them, he said that they had nothing to do with Russia. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers and Russian-backed separatists began attacking the Ukrainian army in the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Donbas.

Garry Kasparov, a former world chess champion who abandoned the sport to work in opposition to Putin’s regime, sees Crimea as a turning point.

“That was the best way to tell the West that, you know, it’s no longer playing by the rules… The annexation of territories is just a very important element in the destruction of the world order. Dictators, they’re opportunists. Even Hitler was an opportunist.” Or Stalin, that’s what made them really strong, so smell it, grab it, attack it.

A fateful meeting of the G20

Once again, the Western response to Putin’s actions seemed weak. He was still invited to attend the 70th anniversary celebrations of the Normandy invasion in France in June 2014. Hollande received him as a guest of honour.

The new pro-Western Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, was also present. Putin agreed to a short meeting with Poroshenko, who knew what he was facing.

“I have several recommendations for those who have a plan to meet with Putin,” he told CBC. “Point No. 1, don’t trust Putin. He’s a KGB officer who’s privately learned to lie. Second, please don’t be afraid of Putin, because if you’re afraid of Putin, that feeds him. Putin will do that.” Only go as far as we let it go together.”

At a G20 meeting a few months later in Australia, then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper tried a tough approach.

According to MacKay, “Vladimir Putin came to this private session with other world leaders and immediately went to our prime minister… who was talking loudly about Putin and his apparent plans for Crimea. Putin called him directly, extended his hand… and then Prime Minister Harper looked at him and said, “You need to get out of Crimea.” And Putin said, “We’re not in Crimea.”

“That was the beginning of the end of Russia’s participation in the G8, because everyone in the room knew he was lying.”

Amid mounting casualties and stalemate in the war with Ukraine, Putin appears to have returned to the waiting game as he watches the term of President Joe Biden, who led NATO’s campaign to defend Ukraine, expire.

While many Western leaders were shocked by Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hollande said: “There is a huge misunderstanding between the Europeans and Putin and, more broadly, between the West and Putin.

“The Europeans do not want to go to war. For them, war has a terrible history, the history of the twentieth century, and there is no reason to believe that war is possible on the continent today.

“But for Putin, war is possible. This is separation. We are peaceful and democratic nations that do not like death. As for Putin, death is part of the act.”

Watch | The full documentary on Putin’s journey: