The Iranian parliament agrees to ban the Strait of Hormuz

Iran may threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but experts told CNBC that it is also the most lost.

In a big step after we hit Iranian nuclear sites, Al -Balad Parliament on Sunday According to what was reported, he agreed to close the Strait of Harmouz, with the risk of repeating its neighbors and commercial partners.

The decision to close the waterway is now stabilized with the National Security Council in the country, and the possibility of this has sparked the specter of high energy prices and severe geopolitical tensions, as Washington calls on Beijing to prevent the closure of the strait.

Tell Vanda Hari, founder of Energy Intelligence Vanda Insights, CNBC’s “Squawk box asia“The possibility of closure remains” the narrowest boundary ever. “

She said that if Iran prohibits the strait, the country risks the transformation of neighboring countries to produce oil into enemies and a risk of impotence with them.

Moreover, the closure would raise the Iran market in Asia, especially China, which is which The majority of Iranian oil exports are.

Harry said, “It is not possible to achieve much of the damage that Iran caused,” and much harm that Iran can do. “

And supports her point of view, Andrew Bishop, a great partner and head of global policy research at the Signum Global Adviss.

He said that Iran will not want to give China, adding that disrupting supplies “will put a target” on oil production in the country, the export infrastructure, and the system “while there is no little reason to doubt our solution and Israeli being” happy. “

Cleiton Siegel, an older energy security and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that since China “is very dependent” on oil flows from the Gulf, and not only Iran, “said its national security interest will really appreciate stabilizing the situation and enabling the escalation that enables safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.

There are currently no indications of threats for commercial shipping that passes water water, according to Joint Marine Information Center. “The vessels associated with the United States have successfully succeeded the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign of the direct future.”

The Hormuz Strait is the only sea road from the Persian Gulf to the Open Ocean, and about 20 % of the world’s oil crosses the waterway. Its US energy information management has Described It is “the most important oil in the world.”

“It is unlikely that Iran’s operations in Hormuz and around” everything or nothing ” – but instead move on the scale of sliding from complete disruption to nothing at all.”

“The best strategy (for Iran) is hormonal oil flows only enough to harm the United States through moderate price movement, but not enough to provoke a major American response against oil production and Iranian Iran,” he added.

On Sunday, Patrick de Han, head of oil analysis at Gasbuddy, said in a publication on X that the prices of pumps in the United States may climb to $ 3.35-3.50 a gallon in the coming days, compared to the National Mediterranean of $ 3.139 per week June 16.

If Iran decides to close the strait, it is likely that small boats will be used for a partial blockade, or to a more complete solution, take out the waterway, according to David Roche, strategic in Quantum Strategy.

In the Sunday note, S & P global commodity visions He wrote that any Iranian closure of the strait means that Iran’s private exports will not only be affected, but also from the countries of the Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.

The research company said that this would remove more than 17 billion barrels of oil from the global markets, and affect regional refineries by causing the lack of raw materials. The supply disorder will affect Asia, Europe and North America.

In addition to oil, natural gas flows can also be “severely influenced”, as gas exports in Qatar are likely to be about 77 million metric tons annually unable to reach the main markets in Asia and Europe.

LNG exports in Qatar account for about 20 % of global liquefied natural gas supplies.

“Alternative supply methods for Middle East and gas oil are limited, with the pipeline capacity is not sufficient to compensate for possible marine disorders across the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.”

the Australian Commonwealth Bank He pointed out that “there is a limited area to bypass the Strait of Hermoz.” The bank said in a note that the pipelines in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates enjoy only 2.6 million barrels per day, while the strait is overseeing the transfer of an estimated 20 million barrels of oil and oil products daily.

All these current upward risks of energy prices, with Goldman Sachs estimated that the market is pricing at the $ 12 geopolitical risk allowance.

Goldman said that if the oil flows across the strait will decrease by 50 % for one month, after which it will remain 10 % for another 11 months, it is expected that it will “jump shortly” to the peak of about $ 110.

Brent Future oil contracts are currently at $ 78.95 a barrel, while West Texas Medium Futures were trading at $ 75.75.