The Iranian nuclear program is damaged, but was it destroyed?

Fordo may be the most spying place on this planet.

Western intelligence was published for the first time in 2009 that it was home to a secret nuclear facility, and now, they are the damage to the American strikes will be vital in determining where the conflict goes.

The evaluation of the defense intelligence agency (DIA) suggested that the basic components of the Iranian nuclear program have not been destroyed and the strikes only restore Iran’s efforts for months instead of years.

But this is just an initial evaluation called “low confidence” – the mark comes because it is the first days trying to understand what happened in a place deliberately hidden from the eyes of the intruders.

Dia is the Pentagon Special Agency that specializes in military intelligence to support operations. It collects large quantities of technical intelligence, but they are distinguished from other agencies such as the CIA.

“It will take some time damage,” said the Chairman of the Board of Joint Tribes, Dan Kane, after that. But what does the destruction or destruction of the program mean and how do you know?

Satellite images of holes and dust reveal little about what actually happened under the ground. They do not suggest a huge drop or cave in the mountain.

This most likely indicates that although the United States used multiple bombs, the Iranians used enough reinforced concrete to prevent it from reaching the main hall and destroying the mechanism at home. This was the first time that these bombs were used operating, adding uncertainty.

However, centrifugal machines, which rotate at high speeds to enrich uranium, are very sensitive, which means that the explosion was likely to have shattered many of them by sending them to rotate from their axis.

The development of a more clear image of damage will require other forms of intelligence – starting with seismic detection devices that can analyze the depth and size of underground explosions (also used to understand earthquakes), and to irrigate the search for radiation (which international inspectors say they have not seen), and sensors such as Lidar (light detection and ride) that can provide a 3D hose. mountain.

The usual and communications will also be vital as they may reveal the Iranians who discuss the damage and their effects. All of this will be constantly updated to provide the final evaluation with a higher degree of confidence.

Even if the sites such as Fordo deal with severe damage and make it unusable at the present time, as American officials have claimed, this is different from saying that it is the end of Iran’s general program. This is because it can be reshaped in new locations.

A fleet of trucks was seen in Fordo immediately before the attack and the decisive question is what they were moving and where it went.

All indicators indicate that Tehran transferred its stock of enriched uranium to another. Another mountain known as “pickaxe” caught an international attention, and perhaps Iran has also conveyed some central expulsion, although it was certainly not enough to make progress at the speed it could have done before the attack.

Even when you have enough very enriched uranium, there are more required stages in making a bomb through weapons and developing a connection system. This requires a level of very specialized scientific knowledge. One of the most prominent work of Israel at the beginning of the conflict was the killing of the scientists participating in the program in the hope of prolonging the schedule.

The attack will definitely restore Iran. But in an amount? Any answer depends on determining what is left after the attacks and will inevitably be appreciated, not a difficult personality.

All this means that the work of intelligence agencies in an attempt to understand the Iranian nuclear program will become more intense in the coming months. And if the signs are Tehran that secretly reinstall the program or the race for a bomb, the conflict is likely to start again.