The International Monetary Fund saves growth forecasts by nearly one percentage point

The customs tariff forms the main opposite winds of American and international economies, leading the International Monetary Fund to reduce growth forecast for 2025.

On April 2, President Donald Trump was not shaken by “mutual” definitions only – S & P 500 It has decreased by 9 % since the fees were launched – but they also removed the anti -measures from other commercial partners.

“This is alone a great negative shock to growth,” said the International Monetary Fund in the executive summary of its global economic expectation in April 2025.

These new expectations include “reference expectations” for global economic growth and inflation, based on the available data from April 4 – including “mutual” definitions, but with the exception of subsequent developments such as Stop for 90 days at higher rates and Smartphone exemption – The former Outlook update shared by the International Monetary Fund in January.

In its new expectations, the International Monetary Fund now calls for the United States to expect 1.8 % in 2025, a decrease of 0.9 percentage of its forecast in January.

The International Monetary Fund also reduced its global growth forecast to 2.8 % in 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimation.

“We forced the Rose Garden advertisement on April 2 to get rid of our expectations-which were almost completed at that stage-the pressure of the production cycle, which usually takes more than two months in less than 10 days.”

“The common denominator … is that the customs tariff is a negative display shock to the economy that imposes them,” he said.

Top inflation expectations for advanced economies

The International Monetary Fund has also reviewed its forecast for the main address of advanced economies, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, to 2.5 % for 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points from January toppling.

The US inflation expectations were also reviewed by 1 percent of January, with a higher estimated range than 2 %.

“For the United States, this reflects the dynamics of the stubborn prices in the services sector in addition to a modern increase in the growth of the basic commodity price (except for food and energy) and shocking the supply from the recent definitions,” the International Monetary Fund indicated in its report in April.

The increase in inflation in the main economies has been compensated by descending reviews across some emerging markets and developing economies.

The extent to which pressure is pressed on the efforts made by the central banks to reduce inflation “about whether definitions are seen as temporary or permanent,” according to the International Monetary Fund report.

Previous seizures of market fluctuations led to the strengthening of the US dollar for other countries, creating exaggerated pressure in inflation in other countries. However, the dollar reversed this trend amid the sale of the last market.

“The impact of definitions on exchange rates is not clear,” according to Gurinchas. “In the medium term, the dollar may decrease in real terms if the definitions are translated into a decrease in productivity in the American track sector, compared to its commercial partners.”

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