The global oil and gas sector is located in a new deterioration amid economic uncertainty all over the world from the wars of customs tariffs, slow demand for oil, and escalation of production from OPEC and other countries, according to a report issued on June 11 of Fitch reviews.
Fitch’s decision to change the expectations of 2025 to the fossil fuel industry from “neutral” to “deteriorating” on the conditions of the global macroeconomic economy, especially in early April, to declare President Trump’s definition and OPEC decision and their main allies To put more crude oil sizes years after self -reduction.
However, Fitch has highlighted that most of the US oil and gas companies in the United States should face limited effects of the sector’s classification – as long as they are shorter in the period – because they entered this period of fluctuations with the strongest average public budget, including the lowest debt.
“There was some escalation of customs tariffs, however, the uncertainty about the place where the tariff rates and the impact of that tariff that have already been implemented will be mainly implemented in our total economic expectations, which leads to an increase in the unexpected oil consumption,” Fitch said in his report.
While OPEC, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and other countries, including Kazakhstan, Brazil and Jianna, oil production, consumes the world simultaneously from crude oil less than expected. The global demand for global projects will grow by about 800,000 barrels per day (BPD) this year, compared to previous expectations of more than a million barrels per day. “The market will remain exaggerated in 2025 because of the growth growth faster.”
At some time of strange time, the Fitch report appeared on the same day that oil prices rose to the highest levels since early April on the news of the growing military tensions between the United States and Iran, the most optimistic economic inflation data, and the United States and China have reached another temporary truce in their commercial war. The American standard of oil jumped to $ 68 a barrel on June 11, an increase of its last minimum levels of $ 58 in early May.
Al -Saudiya is also new estimates that Opec may not increase the actual oil sizes as they are mentioned on paper. Part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, after all, is to bring some nation, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, to a better compliance with the production classes that it exceeds regularly.
“In general, our estimates indicate that the actual flow of expert barrels is likely to be less than the declared production increases, which will lead to real effects on the market,” said Berra Wali, the deputy head of the oil commodity markets of the Rystad Energy analysis.
As for other major evaluation agencies, the S& P Global Ratsings said in late May that she expects American oil and gas producers to reduce total capital spending by 5 % to 10 % in 2025, “amid global economic uncertainty, increased oil prices, capital discipline, and continuous efficiency gains.”
Of course, the third main credit classification agency, Moody’s, to the S&P and Fitch in May by reducing the United States’ sovereign credit rating from the highest level “AAA” for the first time in more than 100 years with tariff wars that represent the final straw.
Federal expectations
The expectations of the evaluation agencies are likened to the updated oil and gas expectations in the US Department of Energy.
The short -term energy expectations in the Ministry of Energy, which was released on June 10, said that crude oil production in the United States will finally enter a period of decline for the first time since the epidemic from the highest global level around the world is 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025.
Outlook expects the United States sizes to drop to 13.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. This is a relatively simple decrease, but it represents a major milestone for the industry that is expected not only to shrink, but also shrink.
OPEC and its main allies, a group called OPEC+, were already shocked in April – at the same time as Trump announced the policy of the new tariff – with pledges to raise production volumes by more than two million barrels per day by late 2025. At the end of May, OPEC+ agreed at the third month of size in July.
“Crude oil prices decreased in the fourth month in a row in May, driven by the high inventory lists of global oil that resulted from the slowdown in the growth of global demand for oil demand and accelerated relaxation in OPEC voluntary production discounts, which started in April,” added the Ministry of Energy’s report.
Collectively, OPEC+ acquired 5.86 million barrels of oil per day in a non -communication mode from 2022 to this year – more than 5 % of global demand – to help enhance oil markets, in part in response to the high American production and due to the slowdown in the growth of global demand.
Meanwhile, the United States was growing from the production of 8.8 million barrels of oil per day in the beginning of 2017 to its new rise of 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of more than 50 %.
All reports of the classification of the Ministry of Energy and Credit follow all the first quarter profit season, where the executive and gas executives have mobilized economic turmoil and the weak oil prices environment, but they only announced relatively limited cuts in the budget.
A Belweether for this industry As the best product focusing on the pelvis, DiamondBack Energy The Chairman of the Board of Directors, Travis Stays, said that the United States industry was already in decline.
“We believe that we are at a turning point for US oil production at basic commodity prices,” Stays said in a letter to the shareholders in May. “As a result of these activity discounts, oil production in the United States is likely to have reached its climax and will start to decline in this quarter.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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