The global system may end in the past few decades – what appears can include China

While US President Donald Trump is largely arrested by the entire world with definitions, and since the trade war between the largest economy is highly escalating, there are questions about whether the global system has collapsed irreversibly, and any countries that can appear as new leaders.

“The world order over the past eighty years as we know is that he died,” said Cameron Johnson, a great partner at Tidalwave Solutions in the Schenghai supply chain.

like Countries everywhere struggle with their responses To Trump Comprehensive definitions Now, when stopping at the baseline 10 percent for 90 days except for China-some analysts say that the world may have no choice but to look to Asia to enhance trade and cooperation, especially since the American system is increasingly predictable.

Dream consequences

On April 2, Trump slapped a 10 percent tariff rate for each country, With a lot. China was one of them, 34 percent.

This step started a Full on Tat for Tat With Beijing that rose quickly.

Despite many countries trying to negotiate with Trump, there are no indications of an end on the horizon, at least to the inability to predict.

In fact, the opposite is exactly. there The latest temporary stop. Then there is an escalation with China, who is currently facing 125 percent of the customs tariff, while a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman pledged that the country was “fighting to the end” if the United States does not retreat. On Wednesday, the average Chinese tariff for US imports was 84 percent. Export restrictions also placed on rare ground elements, decisive for electric cars, weapons and computer chips.

Johnson, an American based in Shanghai, says Trump’s recent actions will only affect “Chinese influence on supply chains in Asia and Africa.”

“No one, at least in this region, feels that the United States has participated in values ​​with them anymore,” he said.

“The entire world is turning here. If you are not on this train, you will be exposed to nams and will prove your people, and this is not good.”

China has achieved abundance

This is especially since the comprehensive list of countries hit by the definitions includes those The United States was trying the court, like VietnamIt was strategically developed for the supply chains bridge between the United States and China.

On the contrary, China, for years, was putting itself as a country that others could do with business and trade, which makes it on many continents, especially with it Green and huge road initiativeA series of global infrastructure projects designed to enhance their economic and political imprint. In many ways, the world’s regime began to be reshaped a long time before Trump’s second state.

China has become the largest trading partner in Africa in the past twenty years. Since 2009, it was also The largest commercial partner From the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN).

Johnson said: “China) is the only country with money, people and technology that can help developing countries,” noting that the United States has managed to demand investment in its country, as is the case in cars, instead of expanding its foreign markets.

In practice, the countries that want to invest and technology are supposed to have to resort to China, as a leader of technology and the second largest economy in the world.

Emotionally, countries that are hurt by American definitions can search for other options.

“This puts China as a long -term winner,” Johnson said.

Asian countries as a whole can benefit; China, South Korea and Japan recently held their first meeting in five years.

China and Europe

There are speculation that China and European countries can also grow as the drama is revealed, despite the light relations that are distinguished Recent investigations to combat dumping.

On Tuesday, Chinese Prime Minister Lee Qiang and European Commission President Ursula von der Lin He made a phone call It stresses “the maximum importance to maintain the continuity and stability of relations between the Chinese European Union,” according to the committee.

Negotiations are to resume on The European Union’s tariff on Chinese -Chinese electric cars was imposed last autumn. (There is still any information about whether it is Canada intends to keep a 100 percent tariff, It is designed after the US tax dating back to the Biden era, on EVS from China.)

In March, British Energy Minister Ed Miliband visited China at the first official climate meeting of the two countries in nearly a decade.

However, the melting of the ice between China and Europe is likely to be weak.

It is worth noting – Von Der Leyen said in the phone call this week with Prime Minister LI, that she is concerned about Chinese goods that flood Europe in the face of American definitions, which can raise the regions further.

Canada’s low -risk strategy

Some analysts say that Canada should consider strengthening relations with China.

In March, Prime Minister Mark Carne Stay away from the campaign’s path He went to Europe last month, his first international trip after the right.

“They focus on a low -risk strategy,” said Gregory Chen, assistant professor of political economics at York University in Toronto.

Later that month, when he was asked about the Chinese ambassador to Ottawa discussing reinforced trade relations, Carney said he warned.

“There are partners in Asia that we can build deeper ties (with),” he said – but this does not include China.

The flirtation of China may come with additional pressure on Western countries.

“It is very difficult, in fact, dealing with a country with a completely different industrial policy and an economic structure,” said Dan Wang, the director of Eraras Group.

However, the chin said that Canada needs to be considered. “It will be stupid to ignore (China),” he said.

“This idea is about the West … it leads the way it was traditionally, the world has already moved,” he said. “We are in a multi -polar world. We have been there a decade now, if not more.”

Risks in close relationships with China

However, the chin is recognized by the underlying risks.

China has been accused of placing commercial barriers, making it difficult for other countries to export goods there. the The European Union lists 31 of themAmong the highest in the world, including exhausting administrative procedures.

US annual report Details of 50 pages of alleged commercial violations.

Dan Trefler, a professor at Rutman College of Administration at the University of Toronto, says China was very “” very My argument in its actions against Canada“

He says Trump may give up his definition as soon as he realizes that he is likely to achieve his goal of bringing manufacturing and jobs in the United States.

“The transition to the center is not impossible,” he said.

What will appear if dust settles out of clarity, but many analysts such as Wang say the relationship of the United States of China, at least, is “out of salvation.”

“There is an opportunity for a complete collapse,” she said.

This may mean that there is now a chance of China to play a bigger role in the world. The West may have no choice but to accept it.