The formation of a far-right government in Austria may come as a shock, but it is not unexpected

Political party About to lead Austria It would take an already conservative country into a growing group of countries turning to the far right in European politics. She has flirted with Nazi slogans, courted Russia, and issued warnings to Holocaust survivor groups. She campaigned on promises to deport immigrants and ban political forms of Islam.

The Freedom Party, known as the FPÖ, and its controversial leader, Herbert Kickl, were given the opportunity to form a ruling coalition this week, after efforts to prevent them from coming to power collapsed. If they succeed in forming a government, it will be a shock to the Austrian political system and another shock to Western Europe, where similar far-right parties are emerging in France, Germany and elsewhere.

But it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The rise of the Freedom Party comes after years of increasing acceptance of the far right in Austrian politics. Its growth has been helped by scandals and an ideological shift in the more mainstream conservative party that has led Austria’s governments for 15 of the past 25 years.

Unlike neighboring Germany, where all other parties refused to include the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in federal ruling coalitions, other parties in Austria have allowed the Freedom Party to share power for years as a junior partner.

The Freedom Party has It broadened its appeal In the last elections With an anti-establishment message Which is highly critical of migrants, Covid restrictions, the European Union, and support for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. The party received support from workers, university graduates and, most importantly, women. In this summer’s European Parliament elections, it was the most popular party among Austrian voters under the age of 35.

“The idea that the FPÖ is somewhat politically taboo,” said Lorenz Enser-Gedenastic, a professor of political science at the University of Vienna. “This train has left the station a long time ago.”

The Freedom Party was founded by former members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, in the 1950s. It was largely avoided in its early years, but then slowly became part of the political establishment.

The party first entered national government with the Progressive Social Democrats in 1983 and has served in four governing coalitions since then, the last of which came just six years ago. It is also active at the state level and participates in coalitions in the majority of Austria’s nine states.

Until the late 1980s, the Freedom Party was a small, elite entity largely associated with some nationalist university fraternities. The new leader, Jörg Haider, attracted more voters by adopting highly critical campaign rhetoric against foreigners.

This focus has become the driving force of the modern party, and has been honed and intensified by Mr. Kickle, who wrote speeches for Mr. Haider early in his career. Mr. Kickle led the party Provocative slogans increasedIncluding the xenophobic “Viennese blood”, too many foreigners are no good to anyone.

In 2017, the Freedom Party joined a ruling coalition with the conservative People’s Party. Karin Kneissl, the Freedom Party’s then-pick for secretary of state, was widely criticized for dancing at her 2018 wedding with Russian President Vladimir Putin. She has since moved to Russia.

The administration and coalition in A. quickly collapsed scandal It involves a hidden camera, a fake Russian heiress, and a former leader of the Freedom Party in 2019.

During the administration, Mr. Kickl served as the country’s Minister of the Interior, making him responsible for immigration control, a topic that was an integral part of the party’s platform.

He made headlines at the time for proposing to “concentrate” refugees in central facilities. Although Mr Kickl later claimed he was not trying to provoke, many believe his use of a Nazi-era phrase referring to concentration camps was deliberate.

Nor was it isolated. Since then, Mr. Kickl’s party has repeatedly used the term “Volkskanzler” – “People’s Chancellor” – which was used by Hitler.

While others in the party wanted to tone down anti-immigrant rhetoric, Kickl benefited from raw emotional appeals to native-born Austrian workers. He exploited resentment over the influx of refugees into Austria from the Middle East, and later from Ukraine. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, he mobilized opposition to the mandate of vaccines, lockdowns and masks.

In the campaign last fall, Kickl promised to build a “Fortress Austria” – by resorting to strict border controls, forced deportations of migrants and the suspension of asylum rights for refugees, which would require a departure from the EU migration agreement. He called for a rollback of measures aimed at combating climate change and a renewed focus on fossil fuels.

He also called for political changes that some analysts say will push Austria toward a more authoritarian model of government, similar to Viktor Orban in Hungary. These include changes New referendum procedures that would allow a relatively small segment of the electorate to force electors to hold a national vote to topple the government or sack individual ministers.

Mr. Kickel’s platform won the admiration of many voters, with the party winning the largest number of seats in September’s National Assembly elections. “There is an increasing demand for a certain amount of rigidity on the part of politics,” said Christoph Hofinger, an Austrian election researcher.

For some, this caused alarm. After the election, Christoph Huebner, executive vice president of the International Auschwitz Commission, said the victory added “an alarming new chapter to the fears and concerns” of Holocaust survivors.

The Freedom Party has partly benefited from the People’s Party’s problems. The group easily won the chancellorship in 2017, after shifting to the right on several issues. But the People’s Party soon fell into a series of scandals, including one involving itself Fraudulent polls Published in the press. It has also faced voter dissatisfaction with inflation and Covid restrictions, along with its latest coalition partner, the Green Party.

After losing the election, Karl Nehammer, the current People’s Party chancellor, said he would not enter into a coalition with Mr. Kickl. Many saw the campaign promise as a play to cling to the chancellorship, rather than an ideological position, given that the two parties have a long history of working together in state and federal governments.

“There was no substantive criticism of the FPÖ’s understanding of democracy or the rule of law” from the conservatives, Enser Gedenastic said.

Despite months of attempts, the People’s Party was unable to form a coalition without the far right. Mr. Nehammer announced his resignation as chancellor this week, paving the way for the Freedom Party to emerge at the head of the coalition.

Under the ruling coalition, Mr. Kickl will not be able to fulfill all his promises. The next Austrian government will need to close the budget deficit, which could hinder his economic agenda, including tax cuts and increased social spending.

But the party’s popularity will give it a strong voice as it pushes for political changes targeting foreigners and refugees, according to analysts. Among them are likely: cutting social services for those who do not speak German or cutting financial aid for refugees.

During the fall elections, 29% of Austrians voted for the Freedom Party. Current polls now put voter support at more than 35 percent.

“If Kickl feels that the other side is not taking these talks seriously, he gets up from the table and forces early elections,” Mr. Hofinger said.