The Federal Reserve meets with uncertainty that permeates the air. This is what can be expected

The Federal Reserve is heading to a decision to closely monitor it on Wednesday with a strong incentive for not doing anything at all.

In the face of questions that have not been resolved about President Donald Trump’s tariff and the economy that indicates important strengths and weaknesses, central banking policies can do little at the present time except for sitting and waiting with the development of events.

“It will be embarrassing at this meeting. The Federal Reserve does not have expectations to transfer anything from the upcoming marital meetings,” said Vincent Renhardt, a former Federal Reserve official for a long time and a chief economist at Bny Investments. “The Federal Reserve must wait for two things: it is to see that politics is in fact entering … but then, when it is clarified, you must see how inflation expectations interact. For this reason, the Federal Reserve should be delayed, then slows down.”

In fact, the pricing of the futures market means implicitly Almost no chance to reduce the interest rate At this week’s meeting, about 1 by 3 in 3 in 3 possibility of a transfer in the June 17-18 session, according to the CME’s Group Fedwatch Kel.

The market expectations were shifted during the past week in response to both mixed economic signals, as well as the signs that President Donald Trump Get the least aggressive at least In an introductory approach. The White House indicated that many commercial deals are about to finish, although no of them has been announced yet.

Rinhart said that his company has two flocks that were connected to this year, and they are more strict than the path than the market expectations of three discounts starting in July. A week ago, the markets were betting on up to four discounts, starting in June.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell He will be left at his press conference after preparing to explain his thinking and colleagues about the place where they see politics.

“The other non -satisfactory part is that they do not know what to do in June,” Renhart said. “So he will have to say everything on the table. He always says, but this time, he will have to mean that.”

Nevertheless, Powell will surely face an interrogation on how to see policy makers of recent data, which drew a picture of the economy loaded with pessimism from consumers and executives of business that has not yet feed on difficult numbers such as spending and employment.

while GDP decreased by 0.3 % annual average In the first quarter, that was largely the product of an increase in imports before Trump’s introductory announcement on April 2. April Non -agricultural salary report It has shown that employment continued at a strong pace, as the economy added the best 177,000 jobs expected for this month.

At the same time, manufacturing and services sector polls show deep concern about the effects of inflation and supply from definitions. also, Consumer optimism at its lowest level in several years While inflation expectations are at the highest level levels.

All of this adds to a tight rope to the height and partners of walking at least during the June meeting.

One wild card in the equation: Trump, as he did during his first term, The Federal Reserve was urged to reduce prices With the edges approaching the target 2 % for the central bank.

However, Rinhart, BNY economist, does not see bending to Trump’s will and their ranks are not broken despite the general statements of some members who offer division to politics.

“The White House united Jay Powell to keep his committee together,” Renhart said. “Do you criticize Jay Powell now and put yourself in the president? Maybe not, if you have worked throughout your life in the federal reserve system.”