- The federal reserve is expected to keep the interest rates fixed. Investors will closely monitor the economic projections of officials of the Federal Reserve – known as the “point plot”. Any contrast to the most quieter and most key officials may carry the key to the future of US monetary policy.
While the Federal Open Market Committee is preparing to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, the financial world already knows what to expect: More patience.
Throughout the year, the Federal Reserve sought to Remember Investors are still strong. Unemployment did not explode, and inflation remained north by 2 %, although fears of the opposite amid the aggressive definitions of the White House. Even the stock market has mostly recovered in the very troubled April.
But there are some signs of retreat across the economy. Unemployment claims continue It is located in three years, which indicates that it is difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs, and manufacturing polls have come less than expectations.
The main question that investors and buildings try to answer whether this slight slowdown is progressing in a much worse look, even stagnation, or whether reports on the increasing uncertainty reflect the just people’s feelings, not economic reality.
Despite the relative stability of inflation and unemployment rate, a A wave of uncertainty Investors have been largely invaded this year due to the rampant changes in commercial policy that disturbs global markets. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has argued the strength of economic data, not feelings, meaning that the central bank was not forced to rush to make a decision on interest rates.
Investors expect the will of the Federal Reserve Maintain interest rates Its current levels of 4.25 % -4.5 % when politicians conclude their meeting on Wednesday afternoon. They also see an inverted average later this year as a practical certainty, with 93 % mitigation to mitigate by the end of the year, according to CME Fedwatch.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump (and more newly Vice President JD Vance) complained that Powell took Very long time to reduce rates. Trump has also repeatedly asked about the advantages of maintaining the federal reserve independently, believing that he should participate in interest rates. Although Trump’s unprecedented suspension is about the Federal Reserve, Powell has always refused to comment on the White House’s criticism.
Melissa Brown, the administrative director of the decision to invest in Simcorp, said, ” luck. “I now think they want in particular to confirm their independence, so so that there is something similar to prevailing – in one way or another – it seems to me that they are more likely to maintain the prices they are.”
The second point plot for this year
The upcoming FOMC meeting will also include the recent repetition of the committee members’ expectations to know the rate of federal funds. The so -called “Point plot“It will help the investors rush to a variety of opinions in the committee, even because they expect the average response between discounts to two years in 2025.
It is important for investors to be a sense of the place where the extremist values of the DOT plot as well because this will help them understand whether federal reserve officials are more concerned about high inflation or low growth, according to Mike Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy at Glenmeede.
“There are two completely separate books on how to deal with each of them,” said Reynolds.
It is common for my future to be somewhat similar to the FBI officials. But this may not be the case now. And he told luck. “The points will remain more distracted than usual.”
In the last quarter, the DOT plot showed that the committee members expect slower growth and high inflation compared to their expectations in December. This time, they are competing with a little more data, as manufacturing measures and gross domestic product expectations have decreased despite the continued growth of jobs and companies’ profits remain strong, according to Brown.
The new developments that have witnessed the manufacture of slow investment and the GDP slide in the first quarter are still not sufficient to stimulate work from the Federal Reserve. Given that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on its prices, investors will be taken to analyze Powell’s words closely. They will want to know if this new collection of data affects my future Powell and how this new group affects.
After several months of instability and increased anxiety over the future of the American economy, investors will be keen to know whether the Federal Reserve believes that all this anxiety has an impact.
“We haven’t seen a tangible work, I followed this increasing uncertainty,” said Reynolds.
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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