The fate of the stock market comes to the following 14 trading sessions

Jobs reports, reading of the main inflation and the interest rate decision in the Federal Reserve, all of which reach the next 14 trading sessions, determining the accent of investors upon their return from summer vacations. The events with the stock market apparently reach a crossroads after the S&P 500 index recorded the weakest monthly gains since March and headed to September, and historically the worst month of the year.

At the same time, the fluctuation disappeared, with the CBOE fluctuations index, or VIX, is trading the top of 20 key only once since the end of June. S&P 500 did not suffer from 2 % sales in 91 sessions, the longest extension since July 2024. I touched the highest level ever at 6,501.58 on August 28, and rose 9.8 % for the year after 30 % since April 8.

“Investors are supposed to be careful in September,” said Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Adviss. “The federal reserve re -overcomes the Dofish cutting cycle after a long stop. This makes it difficult for merchants to put them.”

The stock bull has long sees that S&P 500 loses 5 % to 10 % in decline before a recovery between 6800 to 7000 by the end of the year.

Strange calm

Me is not alone in his doubts close to the range. Some of the largest optimists in Wall Street increases that strange calm sends a contradictory signal in the face of seasonal weakness. S&P has lost 0.7 % on average in September over the past three decades, and has recorded a monthly decrease in the past four years, according to the data collected by Bloomberg.

The main market incentives start on Friday with the monthly job report. This data ended in the spotlight at the beginning of August, when the work statistics office celebrated the non -agricultural salaries of May and June by 260,000. The amendment was launched by President Donald Trump, who Firing The agency’s head, and accused her of manipulating data for political purposes.

After that, BLS will announce its expected review to survey the creation of current recruitment statistics on September 9, which may lead to further adjustments to job growth expectations.

Then inflation takes the stage with the consumer price index report, which reaches September 11. On September 17, the Federal Reserve will give its political decision and quarterly expectations, after which President Jerome Powell will hold his press conference. Investors will search for any Powell road map providing the interest rate path. Al -Makazat markets pricing in about 90 % the possibilities that the Federal Reserve will cut it in this meeting.

After two days, “Triple Witching” comes, when a large group of options associated with stocks ends, which should amplify the volatility.

This is a lot of uncertainty in treatment. But it seems that merchants are strangely interested in this decisive extension of data and decisions. The hedge funds and the great speculators briefly make the CBOE fluctuations index, or VIX, at rates not seen in three years in a bet that will continue to calm. Jobs Day occurs an implicit fluctuation of only 85 points, indicating that the market is risk, according to Kaiser’s bracelet, head of the American stock trading strategy in Citigram.

The risk of turmoil

The problem is that this type of calm and severe sites may be historically predicted with an increase in turmoil. This is what happened in February, when the S&P reached its climax and fluctuations on concerns about the Trump administration’s tariff plans, in which professional merchants caught after their arrival to 2025 that the fluctuation will remain low. The VIX traders also at the top levels in July 2024, before the Elien’s comfortable global markets in August.

VIX rose about 16 on Friday after touching its lowest levels in 2025, but the main fear scale in Wall Street is still 19 % less than one general average.

Of course, there are basic reasons for the S&P 500. This has left the most difficult investors on American stocks since its peak in February, as the monetary levels decreased historically by 3.9 %, according to the investigation of the global fund manager at Bank of America.

But this is the circular problem: with the height of the S&P 500, investors become increasingly concerned that they are indifferent. The index is trading in the average profits of analysts 22 times during the next 12 months. Since 1990, the market was only more expensive at the height of the Dot-Com bubble and the argument of technology that comes out of the depths of the Covid in 2020.

“We are buying from large technology,” said Tatiana Ponch, President and founder of Finance 1. “But these shares have been expensive at the present time, so we reserve some cash on the margin and wait for any decent retreat before we add more to this position.”

Another well -known bull, Ed Yardeni Research, bearing a name, wondering whether the Federal Reserve will reduce prices in September, which will reach the stock market strongly, at least temporarily. It caused it? Inflation is still a constant danger.

“I expect this gathering to stop in the stocks soon,” said Yardini. “The market deducts a lot of happy news, so if the consumer price index is hot and there is a strong report on jobs, traders may suddenly conclude that the price cuts are not necessarily a deal that has been completed, which may lead to a short sale.

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