(Bloomberg) – The financial markets seem to be opened on Monday, as investors directly focused on escalating geopolitical tensions with Israel and Iran continued to bomb each other without any sign of a temporary stop.
Most of them read from Bloomberg
On Sunday, Israel informed new missile attacks from Iran, and said it was carrying out simultaneous strikes on Tehran, as it faced the two countries for a third day at what became the most dangerous tangle of the differences so far.
The biggest reaction to the market was so far in oil, as crude prices increased by more than 7 % on Friday, on fears that the conflict may cause disturbances in a major oil production area. The origins of traditional haven such as gold and the dollar rose, although the fears of fresh inflation undermine the treasury bonds.
The US currency was mixed with their main peers in early Asia to circulate on Monday, as it rose to the top against the euro, but it has not changed much against the yen. Krona Norway fell after climbing oil climbing last week.
Some investors ended last week by choosing to wait for the duration of the period in which tensions will continue, knowing a similar confrontation between the two countries that have not evendeddured. However, the extension of the conflict and the intensity of current hostilities is likely to cast a shadow on the origins of the risk on Monday. Indeed, the MSCI Global Index of Advanced Market shares has decreased since April on Friday after Israel’s initial air strikes on Iran.
“This is to the extent that these countries are in war,” said Michael Ourork, the chief market strategy of the market in Jonestrading, said. He said: “The repercussions will be larger and continue for a longer period,” with weaknesses in the stock markets, especially after the recent gains.
Regional risks
In the region, most stock indicators in the Middle East fell on Sunday. Egypt was the worst performance, as it witnessed the largest losses in more than a year to worry that stopping Israeli gas would lead to a shortage of fuel. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the tadawul scale declines were limited by Aramco, which gained high oil prices. The standard of Israel ended up, as the ELPIT SYSTEMS LTD.
Traders weigh the new geopolitical risks at a time when they are also struggling with the destabilizing world trade relations, the possibility of the new customs tariffs by US President Donald Trump, economic spices, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the growing political tensions in the United States amid protests.
“Unless the oil remains high and leads to high inflation, this is likely to stop temporarily from panic because other accounts are leading the market,” said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments. “It may offer the opportunity to buy, but with the markets rise sharply from its lowest levels, it will be difficult to get gains from here.”
Below are comments from strategists and analysts on how to expect investors to respond on Monday:
George Saravilus, global head of the FX strategy at Deutsche Bank Ag
In the most negative scenario of the complete disturbance of Iranian oil supplies and the closure of the Strait of Hermoz, oil may rise to more than $ 120 a barrel. Under a 50 % more restricted scenario in Iranian exports without wider turmoil, the high oil prices will be limited to the current levels, which means that this is the scenario that the market is currently pricing.
Wolf von Rotberg, the bank’s strategic expert J. Safra Sarasin
The markets should be prepared for a long time of uncertainty. The conflict is likely to last for several other days. Drinking risks to the negative side. The hedge against potential oil supply chain disorders by exposure to the energy market and addition to gold, which may witness an acceleration in its emerging structural direction, is the best way to protect a portfolio against an additional escalation in the Middle East.
HASNAIN MALK, a strategic expert in Teller
The rise in oil prices reflects the dangers of Iranian exports in an internet non -connection, but not a serious disorder of the hormone strait, through which 20 % of global oil decreases. However, Eastern European markets offer an example of the speedy recovery of regional markets if there are indications that the conflict will not be pronounced.
Martin Persichi, founder of Frontier Road Ltd.
The fluctuation here to survive and the markets have not been seized for signs of political geography. This weekend was an escalation, so the markets should negatively interact, but I know enough to know the uncertainty, so I will not try to guess where the markets go.
Alexander Haziz, Chief Investment Investment Group Rachelo
Oil prices, which were declining for several months and allowed central banks to reduce their rates, can become a very annoying factor for economies and lead to recession, a scenario that was previously excluded. How will central banks interact in the event of an oil crisis? It is clear that there is a danger to inflation and growth. The only protective assets remain oil and gold. The dollar is expected to strengthen.
Generation of Jobot, Head of European stocks in Aksa IM
This catalyst is likely to lead to more profits in the stocks. The stock markets have increased sharply recently with high reviews, especially in the United States, amid weak economy and low expectations for arrow’s profits for growth. There is nothing in terms of the back wind of the market. In terms of sectors, oil majors are likely to be in intense demand because the sector has recently given performance. High oil prices change the direction of travel.
Christopher Dembek, Chief Investment Consultant in Pictet Asset Management
Since Wednesday, hedge and merchants are covered by buying VIX calls. They may enhance these situations and add tactically to gold, especially in defense stocks. As for oil, hedge funds have been purchased since the end of May, while the rest of the market was selling at the same time. There is no reason to liquidate these situations. It is different for institutional investors. Many have added simply hedges, but they are making a slight change in their allocations because they know that this type of geopolitical events has a little impact on their conservative in the medium term.
Anthony Bencho, cross -off crossed sales dealer in Liquidnet Alpha
With regard to oil, the Saudis have sufficient backup capacity to keep things under control, and Iran has no good options. If they hit American assets, they risk withdrawing the United States directly to the conflict. Unless the United States is involved, there is no real oil shock. Even with the strike on the Iranian Tabriz refinery, the width looks stable. OPEC can compensate for any small losses easily, just as they did during Russia-Ukraine’s unrest.
Andrea Tueni, head of sales circulation at Saksu Bank France
Accurately for stocks, this conflict is not the game changed. It is a translator and its real main effect on oil. I do not think that the Iranians will prohibit the Strait of Hermoz, but that will of course change after the conflict. The same if the United States shares directly, but this is currently unlikely. However, it is clear that the open will not be great tomorrow.
Arthur Gorus, head of the ODDO BHF Investment Office Switzerland
The lengthy increase in oil prices may stop or even reflect the current trend of inflation, forcing central banks to maintain rates at the current levels for a longer period. The main uncertainty lies in the development of the US dollar, which was caught between a possible oil shock and the continuous monetary reorganization of the American administration. Global economic growth can also be reviewed below. In such an environment, high -quality stocks are likely to excel, which is likely to outperform strong cash performance, low debts, and positive profit momentum.
Rafael Thuwan, Head of the Capital Market Strategies at TIKEHAU CAPITAL
There is currently a limited geopolitical risk allowance across stock markets, but we can imagine that the same pricing will begin. At the same time, it can be said that there is a change in the system with regard to safe articles. The dollar does not behave as the typical hedge that it used to be against this type of events, nor is it not treasury bonds. It is now gold, silver or different types of stores that play this role now.
Dennis Debusschere, Founder 22V Research
At the extreme, it is really difficult to hedge from war or geopolitical risks. Is it logical a little dilution on NVIDIA before a nuclear event? Put a little risks in the global disaster in the market? no. It makes sense to have the hedges of the tail against such a result.
To take a sustainable sale in the market based on the war, air strikes, etc., investors need to make a call that the constant impact on inflation, profits or real prices. This is the main factor. Therefore, if the inflation mutations are expected to be temporary and there are no clear negative profit risks to American stocks, then the purchase of war -related decreases was profitable.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment official in the Leuteold Group
Certainly I will not see the decrease as an opportunity to buy. Consumer confidence and CEO is already low, and the conflict can offer it to another degree.
Steve Sosnik, the chief strategy in interactive brokers
In the short term, this may mean more main risks for American stocks during the weekend and the following days with the development of the situation. This has all kinds of ways that can go south. Given the positive momentum and the feeling of merchants, they feel that this calls only for modest caution at the present time. When geopolitics enters play, preferably look at goods and bonds. They are less dispersed by novels. Oil traders tell us that they are not not interested. Perhaps you don’t care, but it is clear that it is not optimistic.
Vincent Jovins, chief investment expert in G
I do not expect a sale. The market is likely to be a bit fever, but I don’t expect a leak. We do not think that we need to reduce our exposure to stocks even if we are neutral in the assets category. Currently, our basic status scenario is that the conflict is not rising to a major regional crisis.
Ben Emions, Fedwatch Advisors
Financial conditions will stress the high oil prices, the rise in yield and the reduction of stocks. So it is likely to be a continuation of what happened on Friday. The key is where the oil goes from here. The bonds lack a safe haven because the high oil prices will change the image of inflation.
Michael Brown, a strategic expert in the Pepston Group
I struggle to see this as a major change in the game in the medium and longer term, if history is evidence, the markets tend to be very fast in pricing geopolitical risks, but they are similarly fast to fade fear as well. Gold and crude are likely to be in the short term. I expected any continuous raw side that needs more escalation in the conflict, most likely targeting Iran’s raw infrastructure.
Marko Papic, Senior Strategy in BCA Research
Investors should be smart. In the very short term, the markets will use this conflict for sale after the abundant crop. But this is largely the risk of purchase. Especially since the inflationary effects of high oil prices will be temporary and will not have any impact on monetary policy. There is no central bank whose prices will rise due to Israel and Iran.
Art Hogan, Chief Strategy Expert at B. Riley Wealth Management
One of the most difficult parts of explaining how to respond to geopolitical events such as this current, and those in our near past, is it extremely difficult to design what the economic cost will be. We feel that while we are still in the escalation stage of this current attack on Iran, it will be difficult for investors to get confidence to return to the markets until we reach a place where we see a slope of exit in this current attack.
-With the help of Elena Popina, Yiqin Shen, Ye XIE and Vildana Hajric.
(Updates with early currency movements)
Most of them read from Bloomberg Business Week
© 2025 Bloomberg LP
