“The end is close”: Will Kabul become the first large city without water by 2030? | water

A new report from the city warned more than six million people, which could become the first modern city to run out of water in the next five years.

The levels of groundwater in the Afghan capital have decreased dramatically due to excessive extraction and the effects of climate change, according to a report published by Mercy Corps.

Therefore, is the Kabul water crisis at the turning point and does the Afghan authorities have resources and experience to address this issue?

The depth of the crisis

Kabul levels of the groundwater layer decreased from 25 to 30 meters (82-98 feet) in the past decade, with water that exceeds normal recharge by 44 million cubic meters (1553 feet) annually, the report was published in April this year.

If the current trend continues, the groundwater layers in Kabul will become dry by 2030, which poses an existential threat to the Afghan capital, according to the report. She said this may cause the displacement of about three million Afghan population.

The report said that UNICEF is expected that nearly half of the Kabul wells underground, the main source of drinking water for residents, is already dry.

It also highlights water pollution on a large scale: It is believed that up to 80 percent of the groundwater is not safe, with high levels of wastewater, arsenic and salinity.

Conflict, climate change and government failure

Experts refer to a group of factors behind the crisis: climate change, the failure of governance and increased pressure on current resources, as the city’s population expanded from less than a million in 2001 to about six million people today.

He also played two decades of US -led military intervention in Afghanistan a role in the crisis, forcing more people to move to Kabul while governance was exposed to the rest of the country.

“The prediction depends on the growing gap between the recharge of the groundwater and the extraction of annual water. These trends have been constantly observed over recent years, making the prediction reliable,” said the expert of water resources management and former lecturers at the University of Kabul Politnik.

He added: “It reflects the scenario of the worst cases that can be achieved by 2030 if effective interventions are not made.”

Najib Allah Sadid, the first researcher and member of the Water and Environmental Specialists in Afghanistan, said it was impossible to set a schedule when the capital dries. But he admitted that Kabul’s problems in the water were dangerous.

He said: “No one can claim when the last well will dry out, but what we know is that with low groundwater levels, the ability of deep groundwater layers becomes less – imagine groundwater as a bowl with exhausted water.”

He said: “We know that the end is close.”

A large part of the Afghan capital depends on an underground well, and with low water levels, people dig deeper or in different locations looking for water sources.

According to a report in August 2024, issued by the National Statistics Directorate, there are approximately 310,000 wells throughout the country. According to the Mercy Corps report, it is estimated that there are approximately 120,000 unorganized wells across Kabul.

2023 delay I found that approximately 49 percent of the wells in Kabul dry, while others are only 60 percent efficiently.

The Mayan said that the water crisis reveals the gap between the rich and the poor in the city. He said: “The wealthy residents can bear the costs of drilling with deeper wells, which limits the poorest of the poorest.” “The crisis affects the poorest first.”

The Signs of this Divide Are EVIDENT in LONGER LINES Outside Public Water Taps or Private Water Takers, Says Abdulhadi Achakzai, Director at the Environmental Protection Traints and Development Organization (EPTDO), ABUL-Based Climate Protection Ngo.

The poorest residents, and children often have to constantly search for water sources.

He said: “Every evening, even late at night, when I go home from work, I see young children with small boxes in their hands looking for water … They seem hopeless from him, and they move in collecting water for their homes instead of studying or learning.”

In addition, Sadid said, the already depleted Kabul water resources have been exploited by “more than 500 water and mineral water companies” operating in the capital “, all of which use groundwater in Kabul. Alokozay, a famous Afghan company in soft drinks, alone, extract approximately one billion liters (256 million gallons) of water over the year – 2.5 million liters (660,000 gallons) per day – according to Sadid accounts.

Al -Jazeera sent Awlasuzai questions about water extraction on June 21, but it has not yet received a response.

Sadid said that Kabul had more than 400 hectares (9884 acres) of green houses for vegetable cultivation, which absorbs 4 billion liters (1.05 billion gallons) of water every year, according to his accounts. He said, “List (the entities that use a long water boom).

“Repeated dehydration, early snow melting and reducing snowfall”

Water deficiency is exacerbated by climate change. Recent years have witnessed a significant decrease in rain throughout the country.

“The Three Rivers – the Kabul River, the Bagman River and the Logar River – which regenerate the groundwater in Kabul depends heavily on snow and ice melting from the Hindus Mountains Kush,” Mercy Legion’s report indicated. “However, from October 2023 to January 2024, Afghanistan received only 45 to 60 percent of the average rainfall during the peak winter season compared to previous years.”

Al -Maya, a former lecturer at the University of Kabul Politnik, said that although it is difficult to determine the amount of crisis that caused climate change, harsh weather events only added to Kabul’s problems.

He said: “The events related to climate such as frequent drought, premature snow ammunition, and low snowfall have clearly reduced the chances of recharged groundwater.”

In addition, increased air temperature increased evaporation and increased agricultural water consumption, and Sadid from the Water and Environmental Specialists Network in Afghanistan said.

While many provinces witnessed a scarcity of water, especially within agricultural societies, Kabul is still the most affected by the increasing population.

Contracts of conflict

Sadid argued with a deeper Kabul crisis than the impact of climate change, which was doubled by years of war, weak judgment and sanctions on a aid -based country.

Many money directed to the country was transferred to security during the first two decades of the century. Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, funding has been used to address the escalating humanitarian crisis. Also, Western sanctions have greatly led to development projects that could better help Kabul manage the current water crisis.

As a result, the authorities struggled while maintaining pipelines, channels and dams-including basic tasks such as canceling the dish.

“The crisis is already exceeding the ability of the current realistic authorities,” Mayor leaders said, referring to the Taliban. He added: “In the well -managed cities, such effects are diluted through powerful governance and water.

As a result, environmental flexibility projects have taken back seat.

“Several planned initiatives, including projects to recharge artificial groundwater, have been suspended after the Taliban acquisition.” He said: “The sanctions continue to restrict organizations and donors from financing and implementing basic water -related projects in Afghanistan.”

Sadid referred to one example: The amazing supply project -with the financing of the German Development Bank KFW, along with European agencies -44 billion liters (11 billion gallons) of water annually to parts of the cabio of groundwater layers.

“But this project was currently suspended,” he said, although two -thirds of the initiative was already completed when the government of former President Ashraf Ghani collapsed in 2021.

Likewise, India and the Ghanaian government signed an agreement in 2021 to build the Shah Dam on the Kabul River. Once this is done, the dam can provide water for large parts of Kabul, Sadid said, “But his fate is not certain now.”

What can be done to treat the water crisis?

Experts recommend the development of water infrastructure in the city as a starting point to treat the crisis.

“There is an urgent need to recharge the artificial groundwater and develop the infrastructure of the main water throughout the city. Once these institutions are in place, the city’s water supply network can be developed gradually.”

Achakzai agreed that the construction infrastructure and its maintenance were the main elements of any reform.

“Regardless of the introduction of new pipelines into the city from nearby rivers, as in Panjshir, there should be an attempt to recharge the underground groundwater with examinations and water tanks,” he said, adding that these structures will also facilitate the regeneration of rain water and the regeneration of the groundwater.

() The Afghan government needs to renew the water pipelines and systems for aging. Updating the infrastructure will improve efficiency and reduce water loss, “he added.

However, all of this has become more difficult by global isolation in Afghanistan and the sanctions system he is exposed to, Akhazai said.

“The sanctions restrict Afghanistan to the basic resources, technology and financing necessary to develop and maintain water infrastructure,” he said. This, in turn, reduces agricultural productivity, and increases hunger and economic difficulties, forcing societies to migrate.