The danger of India and Pakistan did not disappear

India and Pakistan seem to withdraw from the edge of the abyss again. But there was a lot new about the clash of the four -day nuclear armed enemies, and a lot of the main rushing remained volatile, and there is not much indicating that the truce represents any return to the old patterns of self -control.

A new generation of military technology fueled a great escalation. The waves of air strikes and anti -aircraft income performed with modern weapons that put the theater. Soon the drones joined the weapons collectively for the first time along the old control line in Kashmir – hundreds of them in the sky, looking for the defenses of each country and beating without danger to any pilot.

Then the missiles and drones were roaming in the border areas and the depth of the regions of India and Pakistan, where they directly struck the bases of air and defense, which leads to terrible threats and the highest level of military alert.

Only then, it appears that international diplomacy – a decisive factor in the past decline between India and Pakistan – is seriously involved, in what appeared to be the last minute before the disaster. In a new world chapter determined by risky conflicts, dispersed leaders, and a retreating international responsibility to preserve peace, the safety network was never thinner.

“With a historically return, many conflicts in Pakistani India were stopped due to external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, the military historian and the strategic analyst.

Mr. Raghavan noticed that none of the countries has an important military industrial base, and the need to rely on arms sales from abroad means that external pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides seemed more extreme this time, and it seems that India in particular wants to know if it could achieve a different result from previous conflicts.

He said: “I think there is a kind of determination stronger, by the Indian government to ensure that the Pakistanis do not feel that they can only move away or get to know.” “It is definitely part of the escalating thing. It seems that both sides feel that they cannot leave this goal with the other side. They feel that they have got the upper hand in one way or another.”

Political facts in India and Pakistan – which are invaded by both a firm religious nationalist – are still unchanged after fighting. This creates perhaps the strongest batch towards the type of confrontation that can go out of control again.

Pakistan dominates a military institution that strangled civil institutions and run by a difficult general over nearly decades of efforts for Islam of the armed forces. The victory of Hindu nationalism, which reshapes secular democracy in India as a public Hindu state, has pushed an uncomfortable approach to Pakistan.

On Sunday, there was no indication that Pakistan or India might reform its diplomatic relations, which were lukewarm even before the military escalation, or to reduce the visa restrictions on the citizens of each other. It seems that India does not retract its announcement that it is no longer compatible with the river treaty between the two countries – a decisive factor for Pakistan, who said that any effort to prevent water flows will be considered as a war of war.

The last fighting spark was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir who killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role.

The crisis ended a six -year calm, as the Indian government followed Prime Minister Narendra Modi a two -fold approach in Pakistan: an attempt to isolate its neighbor with the least connection and support of security at home, especially through severe militarization on the Indian side of Kashmir.

A pattern of escalating military action in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had filled itself in a maximum response. After the attack last month, the political pressure was to provide an immediate strong military response.

But the army’s options in India were not easy. In 2019, the last direct clash with Pakistan was broke out when a transport helicopter fell and when the Pakistani forces shot down an Indian fighter plane in the Soviet era and seized its pilot.

Mr. Modi has been hindered to modernize his army since then, which has been flowing with billions of dollars, due to the restrictions of the offer caused by the Russian war in Ukraine. India was also emphasized by four -year skirmishes on its borders in the Himalayas with China, where tens of thousands of forces remained in full swing even a few months ago.

When it is time to use power against Pakistan last week, India wanted to put that lost position and those past difficulties behind it. It also sought to show a new more muscle approach on the world stage, which can only use its growing economic and diplomatic strength, but also its military power.

Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who studied dynamics between India and Pakistan said that India came out of this last conflict seemed firm and aggressive, and may have created a new level of deterrence with Pakistan.

They said that the way the battle played did not suggest an improvement at the operational or strategic level.

On its opening tour of the air strikes, on Wednesday, India hit deeper targets within the enemy’s lands than they were in decades, and through all accounts it has approached enough facilities related to terrorist groups that could claim victory.

Every day he followed it full of language from both India and Pakistan, which indicates that they achieved what they wanted and were ready to control the soul. But every night was full of violence and escalation. I continued to intensify more traditional artillery era, making the heavier loss of lives. The drones and air strikes grew increasingly, so that some of the most sensitive military sites and strategy are targeted in each country.

What seemed recently that it led to the intense diplomatic pressure from the United States, with clear help on the ground from the Saudis and other Gulf states, the goals were not approaching only sensitive sites – but also what the next step could mean in a rapid escalation of disturbing nuclear powers.

Shortly before the announcement of the ceasefire late Saturday, Indian officials were already noting that any new terrorist attack against India’s interests would meet similar levels of strength.

“We have left the future history of India to ask about strategic political advantages, if any,,” said General Vid Brakash Malik, former head of the Indian army.

Kumar Day The reports contributed.