The Conference Council’s expectations for recession, as government closure holds data

Several times this year the recession indicators may flash warning. The revenue curve is inverted and then immediately achieved. The tariff plans in the White House are almost like Jpmorgan’s Jimmy Damon To warn economic shrinkage cannot be removed from the table.

This week came another warning: Conference Council expectations indexWhich analyzes short -term expectations for conditions of income, business and labor market – was implemented by 1.3 points to 73.4. The criterion that leads to a stagnation warning is to read 80.

The organization wrote that consumer confidence decreased “sharply” in September. The consumer confidence index decreased to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August, while the current situation index (based on consumer assessments of the labor market and labor market conditions) decreased 7 points to 125.4. Both indicators are standards for 100 indicators registered in 1985.

If there is one part of the economy, analysts do not want to see weakness, it is consumers. This regional week Federal Reserve Chairman Beth Hamak It highlighted that Wall Street’s expectations for strong business were derived from stable consumer spending. In fact, proverbs CEO of Bank of America Brian Moinhan They expressed their surprise and optimism that American consumers have done well in the past two years, and they have continued to push the economy as a result.

If this spending engine will get great repercussions for the economy as a whole. Stephanie Gethshard, chief economist, wrote global indicators in the Conference Council, as well as issuing data: “The current position is the largest decrease in one year. Consumer evaluation of working conditions was much lower than recent months, while their evaluation of the availability of the current jobs for the ninth month, respectively, fell to reach a new multi -time level.

“Consumers were more pessimistic about future job availability and future working conditions, but optimism about future income increased, which reduces the total decrease in the expectation index.”

In fact, the September deterioration does not indicate the first time that the index entered the recession area – it has been there since February 2025 – but it represents another step away from the healthy view over a long period of time.

When it comes to economic prediction, the problem of inflation often can decrease not only the actual increases in prices, but also consumers’ expectations about how much it will rise. This is because expectations can make shoppers change their habits unnecessarily, or start searching for higher wages and stimulating a wage price spiral.

On this front, the conference council found a slight improvement, but it still causes some anxiety. I mentioned that the average inflation forecast for 12 months for consumers sat 5.8 % in September from 6.1 % in August-higher reality less than 3 % reported in the latest BLS statistics report.

“The references of consumers showed that references to prices and inflation increased in September, as she regained her highest position as the main topic that affects consumer opinions about the economy.”

Data question

However, economists have already warned spectators against relying heavily on private sector data in a possible void of reporting while the government is closed.

There will be no job report on Friday, and there will be no data for unemployment that was released during the operation. With the BLS assembly CPI due to the mid -October, this can also be affected by the closure.

UBS’s chief economists have warned customers in this morning memorandum: “Economists now lack official economic data from U, private sector data, is a weak alternative. Special data is similar to displaying the economy through a key opening – but with the field of narrow vision.”

“Official data is similar to opening the door. The private data depends on the official data of the modeling of the parts of the economy outside the field of its vision, and the modeling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data.”

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