In a photo taken on May 26, 2016, a mobility scooter sits in front of the rice fields in Gonoi, about 200 km south of Seoul. By 2030, a quarter of all South Koreans will be more than 65 years, and the total population is expected to reach about 52 million in the same year before entering a fixed decline. This is the so -called “Silver Tsunami” a major challenge to the second largest economy in Asia, as the population of the young working age and the cost of caring for the elderly decreased. In remote rural societies such as Gunwi, which is located about 200 km southeast of Seoul, the direction is exacerbated by youth migration to work cities.
Ed Jones AFP | Gety pictures
South Korea stare at the demographic shipping train. Studies have warned that the country, known as one of the “four Asian tigers”, because of its post -war -war economic increase, is a demographic shelf that can stop growth within two decades.
Korea Bank in 2024 expected The country’s rock rate will be one of the factors that will lead him to a long decrease by the 1940s.
A A separate study By the Korea Institute for Development in May that the demographic transformations will continue to withdraw on potential growth, which may decrease to nearly zero by the 1940s. In its expectations, the South Korean economy can contract by 2047 in a neutral scenario – or early in 2041 in a pessimistic.
South Korea The birth rate is currently 0.748 in 2024A slight increase in the record number of 0.721 in 2023. This compares with an organization for economic cooperation and the average development of 1.43 in 2023. The “replacement rate” that was commonly martyred for the countries to prevent the decrease in the population is 2.1.
What the fertility rate means 0.72 for South Korea is that for every 100 Korean, they will have about 36 children at the current levels, which reduces the workforce across generations. This would reduce productivity and slow growth, as experts say.
Miracle “Miracle on the Han River”?
He told me that technological innovation in compensation for this decrease will witness Korea “sustainable economic slowdown.”
And not because of not trying. The country launched a package after a package of support measures for the new bride to have children, including children’s rewards and cash rewards. Seoul has spent more than $ 270 billion over the past 16 years on incentives to boost birth, according to 2024 papers in the Journal of Medical Ethics.
In 2023, Seoul even made an idea of Exempt men from her compulsory military service If they have three or more children before the age of thirty.
But such efforts did not have a major impact on a country that was welcomed as a “miracle on the Han River” because of its rapid rise after the war. “I don’t think there is any way that the population policy can effectively raise fertility levels in South Korea in any noticeable way,” CNBC told CNBC.
People wander along a back path with the city horizon in Singapore on June 27, 2025.
Roslan Rahman AFP | Gety pictures
While the total fertility rate of South Korea increased marginally in 2024, “should not appear to the champagne Flein,” said Stadade, as it is still much lower than the 2.1 replacement rate. He pointed out that the size of the required family in South Korea is still less than the 2.1 replacement rate, which means that although TFR may reach the top, it will not reach 2.1.
Retirement effect
The workforce will also press the retirement system. In March, the first South Korea passed Reform the pension fund In 18 years, the exhaustion of the state’s retirement pension fund was extended by 15 years to 2071.
He told me that among the four main pension systems in South Korea – military school staff, civilian employees and national pensions – military pensions and civilian employees have already been exhausted.
She added that the current reforms will witness a structure in which young generations pay higher installments while receiving less advantages, which will inevitably lead to criticism to transfer the burden to future generations.
Smaller drafts also have defensive effects. Active South Korea forces 20 % decreased To about 450,000, a decrease from 690,000 in 2019. The South Korean armed forces are increased by 28,500 American soldiers, and torrents have a mutual defensive treaty with Washington.
South Korea is still officially in war with North Korea, as the Korean war ended in 1953 with a ceasefire, not the peace treaty. North Korea is proud of one of the largest permanent military forces in the world, with about 1.23 million individuals.
There is no reason to be pessimistic
Despite the dark expectations of the fourth largest economy in Asia, some analysts warn of despair.
Lee, who was also the former general manager of the National Statistics Agency, said economies can find ways to adapt.
“When the economy faces recession, it usually responds with various efforts to enhance productivity through technological innovation, immigration policies and other measures to prevent further decline.”
Aei’s eberstadt also indicated that South Korea can maintain its prosperity and increase despite aging and shrinkage. He referred to the 1970s, when fears of resources rarely grew with the high population of the world and doubts arose on how to feed them.
In 1968, The Comple Bomb, which was co -authored by former Stanford University Professor Paul Erlet and researcher Ann Erlich, predicted that global famine and increasing death rate with population growth.
However, after 50 years, the world is “richer, better teaching, better nutrition, better, more prosperous, and less poverty than it was when the world was smaller,” said Abestadt.
Li from KPPIF said that, given the changes in the quick policy of the Korean government and the development of public awareness in recent years, it is confident that hacker solutions will appear.
A few people were betting that South Korea could accomplish what it had today when the Korean war stopped in 1953, as Abstadt said.
“Humans are uniquely adaptive,” he added. “This is a completely different challenge, but I do not think that the direct past record indicates that it is smart money to bet against the inhabitants of South Korea.”
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