The asteroid can be destroyed in the moon in 2032. This is why we must destroy it

The 2024 YR4 asteroid won the global attention last year when Astronomers estimated that he could hit the Earth in 2032. Although they have excluded this possibility since then, this large space rock still has 4 % opportunity to break the moon.

These are very small, but at the opportunity to go out 2024 YR4, it ends in the course of the collision with the moon, the scientific community must be prepared. Astronomers have found evidence that the impact of the moon can Get out A huge amount of micromatic debris in a low -Earth orbit, which may expose a spacecraft and astronauts on board the International Space Station.

A new study by NASA researchers and many other American institutions puts our options to avoid this worst scenario. In the paper – Introduction to the Journal of Space Sciences to review and provide peer ArxivThe authors evaluate multiple strategies of deviation or destroy the asteroid before he can criticize the moon. They concluded? It seems that his bombing will be our best bet.

Why should we not distort the asteroid 2024 yr4

The bombing is not usually a favorite strategy. The deviation of the year 2024 YR4 would ensure that no part of it affects the moon or Earth, while its bombing may turn a major threat that can be predicted into many unpredictable smallest. All this was said, in order for the deviation to work, this must be done perfectly – this is not a simple task given how much our knowledge of the asteroid and the short time is granted to us.

NASA showed the technique of its motor deviation in 2022, when the DART task is the dual asteroid redirect test) The asteroid moon is shocked To change its course because it revolves around the larger asteroid called Didymos. Despite the success of the mission, The asteroid deviation is easier than doing it.

To do this accurately, astronomers need to know the weight of 2024 YR4 to calculate the amount of energy required to change its course. It is difficult to estimate this with any degree of certainty. The James Web telescope measured the asteroid diameter in March, where it was found to be about 197 feet (60 meters). But to calculate its bloc, astronomers also need to know its density, and they currently do not have a clear understanding of the formation of 2024 YR4.

According to researchers, the asteroid mass can range from 74 million pounds (33 million kilograms) to more than two billion pounds (930 million kilograms). This is equivalent to an enormous amount of uncertainty about the amount of energy it will take to pay 2024 years outside the path. This is a mistake Qued consequences– It deviates greatly from the asteroid towards the Earth instead.

NASA can launch a survey mission to improve the estimates of the 2024 YR4 bloc, but the best time to do this will be in 2028. This gives the agency only three years to develop the task – an unprecedented narrow time frame. As such, the researchers concluded that the deviation tasks are not practical to prevent the effect of the moon.

The issue of destruction

In light of these challenges, the asteroid’s destruction appears to be the most applicable option, according to researchers. They explain in two different ways that NASA can wander around this.

The first is a strong movement disruption. This will be similar to the NASA DART mission, but instead of pushing the asteroid outside the path, the spacecraft aims to dismantle it. Unlike the effect, such as arrows, kinetic disorder has not been tested before. However, NASA will have a reasonable amount of time to develop this task, as the next available launch window is between April 2030 and the April 2032, according to researchers.

Instead, only NASA can. Yes, really. This would involve the bombing of a nuclear device on the surface of 2024 YR4 or near it or below to break it into pieces. This has not been tested before, but it is theoretically possible. The researchers state that the next available window for such a task will be between late 2029 and late 2031.

We still have seven years before 2024, who are close to its close approach, and are likely to pass safely through the moon. However, this asteroid provides scientists a rare opportunity to test and refine strategies to prevent effects on the ground and natural satellites, ensuring that we are ready to protect our home if the need arises.