The American trade surplus in India contrasts with the deficit of the BRICS; The economist warns that weakening relationships may cost jobs

Trade relations in India are separated with the BRICS countries and the United States sharply, raising difficult policy choices for New Delhi at the time of the growing global trade tensions.

In a publication on X (previously Twitter), Trinh Nguyen, the major economists specializing in Asia emerging in Natixis, wrote: “For the Brexes, India is the big demand market – they sell more than their import, as in a surplus. BRICS to solve the crisis.”

Nguwayn noted that India plays a distinguished role in assembling the BRICS – as an absorption of the offer due to the massive local demand. “For example, India exported $ 5 billion to Russia in 2024. If the goal is to grow 50 % in five years or by 2030, we are looking into a export market of $ 7.5 billion. This means that the role of India in Brex is to absorb the offer with its request, so the trade deficit with everyone except Egypt.”

Commercial data confirms this gap. According to Natixis-CEIC numbers until June 2025, India has been constantly managing a major commercial deficit and expanding it with the BRICS countries in particular with China, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, its trade balance with the United States remained positive and growing, providing India with a decisive export market.

Naguin warned that diversification of export markets and reducing commercial barriers are reasonable strategies, but moving away from the United States may be painful. “Meanwhile, there will be a lot of job losses in intense employment sectors, a sector that already suffers from work,” she warned.

By comparing India with Vietnam, Naguin noted that although Vietnam is considered an existential threat, the self -perception of India as an increasing regional power with strong local demand gives it more space. However, I warned that this comes at a cost: “This means that rural people or low workers will face very difficult times in the future even if the definitions themselves have a limited impact on financial markets and economics.”

The graph shows that the trade surplus in India with the United States has been steadily expanded over the past two decades, while its inability with the BRICS countries, led by China, has been deeply deepened since 2018. This structural contrast highlights the unique site of India: a pure resource for the United States and a net network within the British.

Naguin concluded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have taken a strategic choice. She said: “The upcoming difficult options and I think Modi has chosen her, similar to what she wrote at India Op-Ed,” and promised a longer economic analysis in the coming days.