The ambiguity of $ 100 billion is revealed on definitions and inflation, and economists break the case

Logo, everyone repeated by the leaders who prevail over Republican party factionsIt was clear: the tariff is a tax on consumers. The companies said the same, with three quarters of the importers in a recent critical study in New York, they announce that they intend Pass Some costs of customs tariffs for customers.

But in the middle of the year to the year, in the most promotion of trade in half a century, the inflation fueled by the customs tariff is missing at work.

Certainly customs duties are present: the Treasury has so far collected a record set 100 billion dollars In customs duties, it is on the right path to withdraw $ 300 billion this year. Definitions Payed by our importer-He thinks Wal Mart Other retailers – when goods cross the border to the United States, it takes some time to work in the system, but eventually high prices are transferred to consumers. These higher prices directly affect the total price levels in inflation measures.

However, there is a mystery, wrapped in a mystery, and wrapped in a mystery. One -place tariff does not appear? In inflation numbers.

For a period of four months, official inflation readings were from the work statistics office in light of expectations, with the last reading of inflation Moderate 2.4 %. The Economic House of Economists (CEA) has released the President (CEA) this week Brief On the pretext that import prices have already decreased.

Why not show data a tariff? This is what prominent economists said luck.

It is very soon

Although the definitions have been discussed months ago, they have not already existed for a long time.

The financially conservative National Tax Union said in a cash In the study, which looked at the prices until May. “Unstable definitions were imposed by 10 % of Trump only in April.”

Steel definitions and Aluminum It entered into force in March and increased in June, while Chinese imports are subject to a 30 % tax since March; Dozens of “mutual” definitions, which were initially announced in early April, were postponed.

Meanwhile, the official government price data takes some time to collect and issue. As of mid -July, the latest data for Consumer price index And individual personal consumption expenses, May’s covers.

The major companies are stored

Immediately after announcing the customs tariff, the importers rushed to bring the goods before they were subjected to a higher rate. Companies have brought a lot of commodities, with no corresponding sales, to the point that they turned shortly to the United States. GDP in a negative area. (In economic mathematics, imports are negative for GDP.)

This increase means that it is still possible for companies to largely sell the goods that are offered under pre -conflict prices.

“The companies store inventory, and it is not supposed to have to raise prices on the goods because they are sitting on the shelf. In the end, and as soon as they start raising prices, they will start influencing consumers,” said Eric Winozrad, the chief American economist in Alliansbernstein.

Nobody knows how much prices are raised

The uncertainty, in one word, is “the most important reason”, the solid data does not show the effect of customs tariffs yet, according to Eugeneo Aleman, the chief economist in Raymond James.

He told “business owners” pricing their goods at an alternative cost. If they have to buy the same good in the future, they must increase the price (imposing fees on the customer) if the alternative price is higher. luck. The problem, though, is uncertainty. “Everyone knows that the prices that companies will pay will pay for alternative goods will be higher, but no one knows the amount. This uncertainty prevents many companies from re -assembled their goods.”

It comes out of profits instead

Companies, especially small companies, can choose the cost of definitions at the present time. Unlike large companies, they have a smaller customer base and they may be reluctant to high prices, Aleman said.

He said, “Perhaps small companies eat a large part of the definitions. Why? Because they cannot lose customers,” he said. One of the potential data points that indicates that this possibility is the numbers of modern trade management that shows growth in the income of the owners – an agent for small companies –Flat. Aleman confirmed that more than a month of data will be needed to determine whether this is the case.

recently Bank of America Research shows the amount of definitions paid by small companies in May Double from 2022 Levels. “In some respects, small companies may be more likely to press customs tariffs than large companies, given that their access to capital is more limited,” this note.

They are afraid of Trump

One of the additional factors is the Trump, which Trump used freely even in the greatest thinking in retail stores in long -distance hiking costs.

“If the president sees a great passing of tariffs through prices, you will see a lot of public policy, perhaps across twitter“Jeff Klinjelhofer, Managing Director of Aristotle Pacific OceanHe said luck.

Customers will not pay higher costs

Klingelhofer previously suggested that companies will take the impact of the tariff because they are the only one that they can afford, with consumer “exploitation” after years of high inflation. Claudia Siham, the former economy in the field of federal reserves, also indicated that companies today are the lowest speed in raising prices than they were during the amplifier of the epidemic, when the Americans were flowing with criticism and eager to spend.

In 2021 and 2022, “consumers up and down in the distribution of income, they had some cash, and there were a lot of calls to the profits of companies that say” We are going through these costs, and the consumer can deal with it, “and I also told the consumer to deal with him.” luck.

Three years later, the Americans spent everything Excess savings She said that companies “accumulate through Covid, and companies” realize whether they increase prices significantly, as customers may lose. “There is more hesitation. There is some increase in prices, but not abundance “for the epidemic.

Inflation may not come

This is the position of Mark Debllasido, America’s political advisor compassConservative economic outfit, which supports definitions as a means of rebalancing the American economy.

He said: “Foreign exporters have ended with the absorption of a lot of (costs), and companies – little did not reach consumers at this stage.” He pointed out that Japanese car makers reduce prices – sometimes approximately 20 % – to compensate for the cost of the addition that American buyers will pay. In other words, “Japan itself and Japanese companies deal with the costs of definitions.”

Every economy luck He spoke with some version of this point – that the customs tariff, instead of giving an empty check to the seller to boost prices, prefer complex negotiations between importers, exporters and buyers at the end of the American. Finding a balance between the party pays the amount that will take time, and it will be individual for every sector and sector for the economy.

“The definitions are a tax on imported goods,” said Sahm. “No one wants to pay the tax, who is the weakest link? Lauren can enter and tell its Chinese producers,” You have to cut the price. “Maybe in the epidemic, consumers said,” Well, I will pay it – I am not really happy to do so, but I have money. ”

She added that the final answer: “It can be very specific for business and industry as well as general economic conditions.”