- The impact of definitions depends on those who carry their cost“The consumer, who was” exploited. Companies can deal better with the import tax because the margins “were not above ever.”
With the end of the United States of China’s conversations, investors are once again looking into the economy to find out the amount of shock that will be the definitions.
“The system is incredibly fragile,” said Jeff Klinjelhofer, the administrative director and director of the portfolio in Aristotle Pacific, said. luck. However, the amount of shock tariffs will eventually depend on those who hold the cost.
Usually, this is the end user. The importers and economists have said for several months that the consumer usually pays the cost of import taxes.
“Most of the suppliers are going through the definitions of our full value,” said a chemical products company for the Supply Management Institute in a poll last month. (R) The axes are always transferred to the customer. Definition studies 2018-2019, which were much smaller, found nearly 100 % of additional costs that were transferred to the consumer. Yale’s budget laboratory estimates that customs tariffs will Assign Typical family $ 2836 throughout the year.
Except, Kellingelhofer said, this time it can be really different.
“The American consumer should not pay the definitions. “It is possible that companies will eventually see the pain of definitions more than consumers.”
In fact, after absorbing the high prices after four years, everything from home foodstuffs shrinks to housing, consumers may not be able to take more pain. 77 % record Some debtsAccording to the federal reserve.
“The case of consumers has been exploited,” said Kellingelhofer. However, “incredibly strong companies budgets – margins were not basically higher in human history.”
In fact, corporate profits increased as part of national income, a number that never exceeded one number up to about two decades, reached a record of 13.6 % in 2021. At the beginning of this year, it was slightly less, by 12.8 %.
He said that companies have an additional incentive to accommodate the cost of some customs tariffs, at least, the president, who is monitoring the CEO. Trump spit with Wal Mart In May, the retail dealer was directed to “He eats“The cost of definitions is a major example of the type of public policy via social media that Kellingelhofer said will be more common if customs duties begin to circumvent.
Although the exact level of the definitions that companies, consumers, and everyone else is still in the air, Kellingelhofer says the trend is clear: “I will escalate significantly.”
He said: “I find it difficult to believe that we come out of this presidency by definitions anywhere less than low teenagers, compared to 1.7 % of GDP,” said its average level at the beginning of 2025.
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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