The performance of the broader market during the first hundred days of Trump is the worst for any administration for more than 50 years.
The sharp losses have given the way to recovery, but the main indexes are still decreasing throughout the year.
Customs tariffs, commercial negotiations and concerns about recession, or even a recession in a concentration on a hundred days of Trump’s day.
President Donald Trump promised to shake matters as soon as he took office, and a boy. Trump imposed a comprehensive tariff on goods from most countries in an attempt to convert contracts of globalization that it is believed to have made global trade unfair to the United States
Send the extent of definitions in the first April 2 advertisement, the shares that are drowned, and both S & P 500 and Nasdak Indexes entered the bear market in that month. The shares then quickly recovered as soon as Trump announced a 90 -day stoppage on the definitions of most countries, so that the administration could negotiate commercial deals.
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Even with a recovery and a nine -day win from May 2, the S&P 500 is still running its worst performance in the first 100 days in his position since 1974, when about 8 % decreased. It was a journey of an equal nature for investors in the first months of Trump’s second state, but what can they expect in the coming hundred days?
The Trump administration takes 24 days at a 90 -day tariff, until this lines are written. While the administration hinted at commercial talks with major commercial partners such as India and Japan, there is nothing official. In addition, tensions escalated with China. Trump raised Definitions On many goods from the second largest economy in the world to 145 % cumulative. Meanwhile, China has returned back, as American imports slapped with 125 % of the cumulative customs tariffs in return, and the country’s leadership did not show any signs of decline.
However, the media recently reported that Chinese officials have the possibility of starting trade talks with the United States after senior US officials inquired “through the relevant parties several times,” a spokesman for the Chinese Minister of Commerce said in a statement. However, the statement also said that the United States should remove all unilateral definitions if they do not want “more mutual settlement”.
Access to agreements with the main commercial partners, including China, will be very important to keep the stock market in full swing. Many companies have warned of the consequences of what might happen if Trump ultimately re -highly restored. The repercussions may mean high prices and layoffs, while many market strategies expected imminent stagnation. All eyes will be on these commercial negotiations, which are likely to keep investors on his toes over the coming hundred days, while swinging significantly on news headlines.
The official photo of the White House, written by Joyce In Bogusian.
Even with the stopping of 90 days, the chance of recession increased this year as economic data continued back and forth. The GDP of the United States in the first quarter (GDP) 0.3 % shrinkageAlthough many economists have suggested that data can be inclined by companies that rush to apply for customs tariffs, which led to an increase in imports. In the face of fears of the recession, the job report surprised in April with the upscale tour, and unemployment remained by 4.2 %, indicating that the labor market may be equal, which some believe.
However, if the gross domestic product in the United States decreases again, the economy will be in a technical stagnation. Economic data also started showing some cracks on the consumer side. The definitions add another layer of uncertainty to the macro look. The federal reserve is satisfied with waiting and knowing what is happening because it is concerned that the definitions may lead to a rise in consumer prices.
The Federal Reserve does not want to increase the prices of consumers as economic growth and high unemployment slow down. Such conditions will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve Bank to achieve its dual mandate for full employment and price stability. This scenario can lead to recession, which is a worse result where Federal Reserve Mourning cannot simply reduce interest rates to stimulate growth without the risk of re -igniting inflation and hurting the labor market.
All of these different factors pave the way for more fluctuations. Despite the winning chain in the last stock market, the American economy has a narrow yarned needle, and no one can say with certainty how Trump’s identification story will end, at all.
With this in mind, investors need to maintain a long -term look. Trying to achieve short -term victories in this environment is especially fraught with risk. Historical data appears whenever you can invest your money, the more your chance to get better positive returns. Stay calm in chaos and know that the patient’s approach still should win in the end.
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