Senior economists warn that the United States is “on the edge of recession” – and it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to save

After months of viewing significantly in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariff, the economic view suddenly turned into depression.

Zandy wrote in a A series of posts on X Sunday. “Consumer spending has been contracted with construction and manufacturing, and employment is scheduled to decrease. With high inflation, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to save.”

The salary statements grew by only 73,000 last monthMuch less than expectations for about 100,000. At the same time, the May balance has been revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the June total of 147,000 to 14,000 has been reduced, which means that the average profit during the past three months is now only 35,000.

While Trump claimed without evidence that job data was “forged” and launched the agency’s head that produced the report, Zandy noticed that the data often gets large reviews when the economy is at a turning point, such as recession.

Separate reports also held warning signs. The gross domestic product is more powerful than expected in the second quarter, but the scale that comes out of the impact of foreign trade and instead appears to slow the final local demand.

The personal consumption expenses report showed that basic inflation accelerates to 2.8 %, and more than the goal of the Federal Reserve by 2 %, and consumer spending increased in June. Federal Reserve Policy Manufacturers have been affected by interest rate discounts while they are waiting for the amount of definitions that affect inflation.

Meanwhile, construction spending continued to decrease in June, amid a sharp drop in the homes of one family. The manufacturing activities index of the Institute of Supply Management for the month of July declined, indicating that the sector that was contracted at a faster pace.

Now, and Tracking GDP in Atlanta Fair It indicates continued growth, although it is expected to be given to 2.1 % in the third quarter of 3 % in the second quarter.

There are also no signs of collective workers’ demobilization, and the unemployment rate has almost changed, as it increased in a narrow range between 4 % and 4.2 % for more than a year.

But Zandy said that the unemployment rate is still low only because the size of the workforce has stagnated. The workforce born abroad has also decreased by 1.2 million in the past six months amid the Trump Immigration campaign, while the rate of participation in the total employment decreased.

With a reduction in the supply of employment, as well as demand. Zandy pointed out “the freezing of employment at the economy level, especially for new graduates.” The result is that the so-called neutral level is one of the job gains needed to accommodate new workers-and maintain the unemployment rate fixed-now much lower.

Zandy added: “It is not ambiguous that the economy is fighting, blame for increasing customs tariffs and the very restricted immigration policy.” “The definitions are increasingly advancing in the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American families. Less number of migrant workers are a smaller economy.”

Friday, Economists in JPMorgan seemed a stimulant A possible contraction. They pointed out that job data show that employment in the private sector may cool with an average of 52,000 in the past three months, with sectors stopping outside health and education.

Besides the absence of any signs that unwanted separation is rising due to the immigration policy, this is a strong indication that the commercial demand for employment may cool.

Jpmorgan added: “We have constantly emphasized that the slide in the demand for employment of this size is a warning signal.” “Companies usually maintain employment gains through the growth processes that they consider transient. In the episodes where the demand for employment is sliding with low growth, it is often like a provision for a reduction.”