A question waving on the horizon in Wall Street because it digests the highest levels of stock market in dogs in the summer 2025: Is this version of the Dotcom bubble? Apollo’s Torsten Slok has already calculated it Top 10 S&P 500 companies today are more appreciated From what it was in the late nineties of the last century. Now the Stifel Investment Bank expects that even with the “Souk Party as 1999”, the correction and stagnation of the stock market in the forefront.
Stifel strategy, led by Barry Banyster and Thomas Carroll, wrote in a research note that they are simply “uncomfortable” with the S&P 500 who got 32 % of its lowest level on April 7, as the latest numbers of GDP show the actual economy almost slowing down to crawling. They also warn that “Hoboom” is a strong drug and that the stock markets may be “the whistle of the cemetery.”
Simply put, Bannister and Carroll say that consumers are not rich as the balances of their accounts show, after “the illusion of money” for the financial incentive in the Kofid era, which they described as an effort “at the level of world war.”
As the great American consumer runs out an economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, Stifel sees a 10 % decrease or more in the S&P 500.
Real economic pain is fermentation
According to Stifel, the clear health of American consumers is a basic slowdown, with personal consumption – responsible for 68 % of gross domestic product – effectively extends to a 0 % growth degree so far. Their research highlights many red flags.
They notice that the growth in real wage income, the main driver of personal consumption, slows down to an annual rate of only 1 % as stagnation.
In addition, the monetary and financial policies in the “rope tightening” that contradict each other, which leads to the minimum enhancement of spending on the consumer.
Unlike in 2022-23, there are much lower consumer savings to support consumption.
On this illusion of money: Stifel data shows that from September 2019 to March 2022, home fund balances increased by 44 %, while consumer spending against historical mediator doubled. Bannister and Carroll argue that the illusion continued to spend on his feet and helped pay the prices of assets to the top, but it is fading now yet.Dying helicopters“From criticism in early 2020s.
They say here, as they say, is that savings rates have returned to balance with the net value of the shares, after a period in which excess money was moved first through consumption, then assets. In other words, America is essential.
Moreover, the Stifel account shows that the personal savings rate has decreased significantly since Covid, so the Americans had passed on spending and now they have less money than in the years before the epidemic.
Analysts warn that this indicates that artificial support has declined and there is no new source of the strength of domestic spending, amid financial deficit and definitions.
Bank of America’s research was martyred similarly Definitions as she kept her invitation to recession instead of stagnation.
An upcoming correction?
The federal reserve was left in a “very late” position on the recession, as the reductions in the rate that Trump continues to call cannot be saved “S&P 500”, with inflation that proves to be sticky and supply in the economy.
while CAPEX boom about artificial intelligence The gross domestic product and assets are temporarily supports, Stifel expects this bump to fade as the technical spending plateaux. Such a construction occurs after all, only once, while consumer spending force enters quietly that can expose the markets to sudden correction, as they write.
The assessments have been inflated. Stifel notes that S&P 500 hit 6375 and Nasdak 100 23,587 arrived earlier this month. However, history shows that momentum can operate ten cents. “The evaluation does not matter until it happens,” analysts warn, referring to the great depression of 1929, abundant Dotcom for the year 1999, and after 2021. They expect that there will be more than 10 % of S&P 500 sales.
An explanation of a “strange” feeling?
Stifel’s landline, echoing Bank of AmericaIt may provide an explanation of a “strange” feeling that permeates the economy. Nick Magioli, Director of Operations in Wealth Management Retolz and author of the book ” New York Times best seller Gossippreviously Talk to luck About the strange state of the economy in 2025 and concluded that “something strange happens.”
“The economy was not built to deal with many people with this amount of money,” said Magioli, whose book focuses on what his research indicates about the six emerging economic classes in the United States. He pointed to the data that shows that the upper middle class, whose value on the net family ranges between one million dollars and 10 million dollars, from only 7 % of the country in 1989 to 18 % from 2022-23, with many of this wealth in the wealth that has occurred since the epidemic.
The UBS global wealth management has documented a dramatic rise in “Daily Millionaire“With a four -fetal over a global basis since the beginning of the twenty -first century. Even after adapting to inflation, their number has increased more than twice in real terms since 2000. luck, “They feel just pass, although they are statistically at the top of 20 % of American families.”
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