Selling the signals of the dollar assets against the long -term shift, warned investors

Investors say that the US assets in favor of the emergence markets in Europe indicate the start of a long -term move through pension funds and other adult institutional funds managers to reduce their great exposure to the dollar investments.

Wall Street Banks says they see signs that investors who run trillion dollars of assets began to trim their American positions, regarding concerns about making wrong policy, President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve Chairman and the implications of the trade war.

Although American stocks have almost regained their losses since the so -called “Tahrir Day” ads in Trump shook global markets last month, they remain in negative lands this year and behind their global peers. The dollar fell by more than 7 percent this year, as some investors refer to “CapitalFrom the United States to other origins such as the debts of the German government.

“This is happening. It will be slow but inevitable,” said Luka Paulini, the chief strategy in Pictet Asset Management. He added that a mixture of relatively cheap stock markets and motivations for European economic growth, such as the German -led defensive spending, made Europe the “most logical destination”.

Bank of America’s survey showed this Investors have reduced “larger” ever For us, stock allocations in March, while the shift from the world’s largest economy to Europe was the most severe since 1999.

Foreign flows trading from European funds allocated to the stock exchange that invest in American debt and stocks-one of the areas used by analysts to display this transformation-and then reached 2.5 billion euros during the month of April, which is the highest level since early 2023, according to data from Morningstar Direct. The investment funds traded in the same stocks witnessed more external flows in early May, although fixed income bonuses have attracted some money.

The sale of the dollar assets, “reflects a long -term trend in which the American assets were constantly benefiting from the strong net flows,” said Kenneth Lamont, director of Mooringstar. This reflection was partially moved by a “national” transformation between European investors into local sectors such as defense.

In a sign of great transformations in Global Capital, the euro has increased at the same time as German government bonds have risen in recent weeks, confusing the usual style and suggesting investors looking for non -state sanctuary assets. Investment banks reported the sale of US dollars and the purchase of the euro in immediate transactions by institutional investors.

The bank is starting to see “real (institutional) money selling only in recent weeks.” George Saravilus, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said he has witnessed “a major sale to the US dollar from real investors over the past three months.”

Veritas Insurance in Finland has reduced its exposure to stocks in the United States in the first quarter. The chief investment officials, Laura Wixstrom, told the Financial Times that the assessments of American stocks were high, while also cited “uncertainty and communication about customs tariffs … confusion and the inability to predict associated with it made us doubt the idea that you should pay this type of installment.”

John Pears, Chief Investment Investment Officer in Australian retirement scheme worth $ 149 billion, Podcast Last month, his box had a major exposure to American assets and would “question this commitment.”

“Frankly, I think we have seen the peak investment in American assets,” he added.

Danish pension funds Began In the first quarter of the first sales of US shares since 2022, making the largest purchase of European stocks listed since 2018.

Sam BNP Paribas, the global head of the Macro Strategy at BNP Paribas, said that if European pension funds will reduce their allocations to 2015 levels, equivalent to selling up to 300 billion euros in assets in dollars, said Sam Lenton Brown, the global head of the Macro Strategy at BNP Paribas.

For years, the United States has been benefiting from the vast capital flows, which is attracting its economic growth, liquidity and strong performance of its markets.

“If the globalization of the capital is in the opposite direction, the question becomes to what extent does it do,” said John Bater, a strategic expert in Windton. “This (trend) must lead to net capital flows from the United States and to other markets, with structural repercussions on the US dollar markets, stocks and bonds.”

Analysts say that there are limits for this trend, given the depth and liquidity of the US Securities Market and the 30th Treasury Market.

But even American pension boxes study their position. Scott Chan, chief investment official in the retirement system for teachers in the state of California, at a value of $ 350 billion, said at the meeting of the Board of Directors this week that one of the “risk and unintended results to open the Pandora Fund on the customs tariff” could be the sale of American assets by its largest commercial partners.

Chan said: “The question for us is whether we need more diversification because we focus heavily on American assets,” Chan said.

The dollar chip this year was especially painful for foreign investors who have American assets but did not unite the risks of the currency.

Bank of America estimates that if they rebuild these hedges to hedging levels before ink, this may mean that European investors are having a $ 2.5 trillion of currency risks to their assets in dollars. This activity is expected to put pressure on the dollar.

However, many investors are not rushing to a decision, aware of the risks of betting against the long -term growth of American markets.

“We are providing an internal discussion about the American exception (and) whether we are lowering the US allocations,” said one of the investors. “The experience says that you need to be careful of these transformations and that betting against the United States has not succeeded well.”

Additional reports by Alan Livsey