Scientists expect an underwater volcano off Oregon to erupt this year

It brings boom. It is, of course, the Pivotal Seamount, an underwater volcano off Oregon that scientists predict will erupt this year.

the Axial seamount It is the most active submarine volcano in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, according to custom Seamount Blog. He’s sitting on Juan de Fuca mountain rangeabout 300 miles (483 kilometers) west of the Oregon coast. Based on recent observations, the deep-sea volcano is ready to erupt for the first time since 2015. A group of earth scientists led by William Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, I mentioned Their predictions were made at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union last month.

Scientists He studied for the first time The volcano in the late 1970s, which is known to have erupted three times, in 1998, 2011 and 2015. A key piece of data in predicting a volcanic eruption is knowing the degree to which a seamount swells—a sign that magma has swelled. It accumulates below the surface, amplifying above-ground structural features.

Inflation and seismicity at Axial are monitored by an NSF-funded network of sensors called the Regional Ocean Observatories Initiative Cable Array (don’t worry, we won’t test you on this). Last year, after a long period of slow swelling, Axial’s inflation rate rose from a slow recovery (since about October 2023) to about double the January 2024 rate by last June. Combined with the increased inflation rate (about 9.84 inches, or 25 cm, per year), the underwater volcano’s seismic activity has increased to hundreds of earthquakes per day. By July, scientists studying data from Axial determined that “the next eruption looks like it could happen anytime between now and the end of 2025,” according to the blog.

Well, there has been no eruption since then, and in October 2024 the team published another update. “The inflation rate at Axial has remained stable over the past six months, and the seismic rate has decreased,” the team wrote. “An eruption does not appear to be imminent, but it cannot do so forever.” In other words, there has been no change in their predictions, and since it is now 2025, the team’s prediction is that an eruption will occur this year.

In their AGU presentation, the team stated that Axial had re-inflated its threshold to more than 95% before the 2015 eruption, a key indicator that an eruption is somewhere around the corner.

if 2015 eruption Regardless of any indication, the expected eruption could be accompanied by thousands of earthquakes and a seafloor drop of about 8 feet (2.4 metres). The sea floor sinks due to the ejection of magma from the swelling volcano into the ocean. Once this is done, the magma begins to slowly refill the holder, starting the whole process again.

Underwater volcanoes can be dangerous. Look no further Honga-Tonga-Hung-Haapai eruption any The South Pacific shook In 2022, which will lead to mass evacuations, covering Tonga in ash, causing numerous deaths and tens of millions of dollars in damage. Chadwick, leader of the research team, said: Science News Predicting the potential effects of an eruption on humanity is difficult, but volcanoes on land are generally more dangerous than seamounts. For reference, the 2015 Axial eruption It did not cause any reported effects on Earth.