Russia retreated from the surprise of the Ukrainian attack on the Al -Qaqfa fleet

Dangers that Russia may not rebuild. It was a very hard fleet that might force Moscow to rethink how Ukraine left. Deep strikes on Russian soil that offer a long war – even against a weaker enemy.

When the drone raid at the end of the week in Ukraine becomes clear from satellite images and expert assessments, as well as the size of the process.

Ukraine boldness – 18 -month planning to hide Done aircraft In trucks to hit military airports thousands of kilometers of Kyiv – they are largely identical to the material damage to the power of the Russian striker.

Although the influence on Russia’s nuclear ability is likely to be embarrassing but limited, the attack is expected to affect daily operations in UkraineSay analysts.

Perhaps more importantly for Kev, Ukraine was also able to show it – on the eve The ceasefire with Russia In Istanbul – he is able to transform dynamics in the battlefield, forcing the Kremlin to accept a new reality in which the targets become in the depths of their territory, even without the use of Western weapons.

Michael Kaufman, a military analyst at Carnegie for the gift for international peace, said that Ukraine’s strikes “had undoubtedly crashed the strike capabilities in Russia,” which destroyed the aircraft that Russia will struggle to replace.

“Although it may not be sufficient to stop the strikes on Ukraine, given the size of the Russian bomber fleet, it has shown that the continuation of the war bears a real cost to the situation of Russia as a military force,” Kaufman added.

The bold original operation, which included smuggling drones to Russia and delivering them into convincing boxes in trucks to attack sites, and hitting aircraft capable of deploying traditional and nuclear weapons.

The estimates are still different according to the exact numbers. Ukraine claims that more than 40 aircraft were damaged or destroyed; Russia only recognized “several units of flying equipment affected by fire.” Other assessments of open source researchers indicate that the actual or damaged aircraft is more than 10 to 12.

Even this would represent a major blow to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, whether operational and political.

Many analysts told the Financial Times that the plane was damaged and destroyed by strikes, which constituted nearly 20 percent of long -range flight in Russia. These aircraft are designed to travel long distances and offer heavy loads in the depths of the target countries.

“These planes were among the most operating roads, making these losses in particular harmful,” said Fabian Hoffman, a physician at the University of Oslo, said that although many bombers were under maintenance, “These planes were among the most operating roads, making these losses in particular harmful.”

William Albrek, a former NATO center in the Stemphs Center, said Russia has used the targeted bombers to strike civilian targets in Ukraine, including during the latest mass attacks.

“They caused a lot of suffering and misery,” he said. “This was a direct way to strike back and try to prevent future attacks.”

Now, Russia will not only have fewer bombers to attack Ukraine, but will have to think about changing its tactics. This includes whether it can risk assembling the plane together, an approach that he recently used to launch mass strikes at Ukraine.

“If Russia is forced to spread it more for protection, this will directly reduce its ability to organize mass strikes and overcome the Ukrainian air defense.”

The situation is more complicated by the fact that the target bombers-Tu-95 and the Soviet Tu-22M3-are not considered production.

The Ukrainian military analyst at the Razoucov Center and the former Air Force officer said that the “strategic bombers that Russia is currently unable.” “They were lost.”

“It is an epic failure, from a professional point of view, and the Russians will have to find answers to some very difficult questions and will need to blame someone.”

The clear negligence of the Russian military leadership, which left the strategic transport companies that were exposed in the open, sparked a wave of anger in the Russian -supportive community of the war.

“Some shelters were collected together for tactical planes, and nothing has been done for the strategic fleet, although these aircraft have come out long ago and the losses cannot be replaced,” wrote Ribar, Z-Channel.

“The strike was a dangerous blow, and to indicate otherwise, which is self -deception on sabotage,” Ribar added.

Albrek at the Stemphs Center said that Moscow may completely give up efforts to replace the lost fleet, which may take “years, perhaps even contracts.”

Impact on the Russian nuclear doctrine, which President Vladimir Putin Disable last year To lower the threshold for use, it is likely to be limited.

From the nuclear trio – a structure that includes Earth’s bombers, sea and air – Russia has long adopted for the latter, because of its weakness. The attack may, already, may hurry to increase dependence on other transport companies.

Hoffman, of the University of Oslo, said that Russian strategic bombers consist of about 10 percent of the country’s strategic nuclear delivery systems. He said that submarines represent about 30 percent of strategic nuclear delivery systems, while wild systems make up about 60 percent.

But the attack referred to Moscow that even the areas far from the Ukrainian border can no longer be considered safe. “There is a feeling among the Russians that the huge size in the country provides a strategic depth – a kind of sanctuary.” “What Ukrainians did is the strike at the heart of this assumption.”

For Ukraine, the complex process also displays the country’s torque, even while maintaining the maximum demands in early negotiations.

On Tuesday, Kiev said that she exploded underwater explosives planted under the bridge that connects Russia with the Crimea Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

The operation targeted an underwater support column for the Kerch Bridge, according to the SBU security service in Ukraine, which said that the equivalent of 1100 kilograms of TNT was used in what he described as a period for months. The extent of the damage remained clear.

When Russia and Ukraine held talks in mid -May, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Didinski, held comparisons with a 21 -year war between Russia and Sweden in the eighteenth century to emphasize Russia’s willingness to fight for a long time.

Melnik said at the Razumbkov Center, the operation targeting the bombers “is also a way to ask them if they were sure of that, whether they are sure that they will be able or ready to continue this war for many years and continue these losses.”

Graphics by All horses and Jana Toshinsky