Old Navy and GAP retail stores are seen as going through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.
Angela Weiss AFP | Gety pictures
The economic growth expectations of the United States and the world have been reduced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, as President Donald Trump’s introductory disorder over the expectations.
Growth forecasts in the United States were reviewed to only 1.6 % this year and 1.5 % in 2026. In March, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was still expecting 2.2 % expansion in 2025.
The repercussions of Trump’s tariff policy, high uncertainty in economic policy, and the slow immigration and smaller federal workforce as reasons for the latest classification.
Meanwhile, global growth is expected to be lower than previously expected, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico”, while other economies are expected to see smaller reviews.
“It is expected that the growth of Global GDP will slow from 3.3 % in 2024 to 2.9 % this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that continuous tariff rates until mid -May are sustainable despite the ongoing legal challenges,” said Economic Cooperation and Development.
It had previously expected global growth by 3.1 % this year and 3 % in 2026.
“The global expectations have become increasingly difficult,” the report said. “The large increases in the barriers that prevent trade, the most strict financial conditions, the weakest business confidence and confidence in the consumer and the increasing uncertainty in politics, will have all harmful effects on the prospects of growth if it continues.”
Repeated changes have continued with regard to definitions in recent weeks, which has led to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the latest developments include that the mutual fees are Trump, for the country to hit By the American International Trade Court, before that Repeat By the Court of Appeal, as well as Trump says he will do double Steel duties to 50 %.
“The reasons why we have reduced the number of almost everyone in our expectations is that the uncertainty and uncertainty in economic policy have reached unprecedented levels.”
“As a result, we saw that consumption and investment have decreased, and in fact, the activity indicators also decreased. If you take this into account, we are also trying to appreciate in our models, you will see that there will be less growth, more functions, and more inflationary pressures to move forward.”
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OECD has adjusted inflation expectations, saying “high trade costs, especially in countries that raise tariffs, will increase inflation, although their effect will be partially compensated by the weakest basic commodity prices.”
The impact of definitions on inflation has been discussed severely, as many central policy makers and international analysts indicate that it is unclear how the fees will affect prices, and this depends on factors such as potential counter measures.
Inflationes of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development show a remarkable difference between the United States and some other major economies in the world. For example, for example, the G20 G20 inflation will now record 3.6 % in 2025 – a decrease from 3.8 % in March estimate – the projection of the United States increased to 3.2 %, an increase of 2.8 % previously.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that US inflation could be closed at 4 % at the end of 2025.
“On the threshold of something very important.”
Pereira from OECD also discussed technology developments such as artificial intelligence, and how it affects productivity – and giving the United States an advantage.
He said: “The productivity was very strong in the United States, and we expect that most likely to expand the gap between the United States (and) the rest of the world, just because exposure to sectors in the United States is higher.”
With technology such as artificial intelligence, robots and quantum computing, there is a “great production revival”, but only if commercial barriers are reduced, investment and consumption increased.
“I think that if we can obtain trade agreements between countries, not only between China and the United States, but also other parts of the world, and if we are able to reduce uncertainty, we believe that we may be on the threshold of something very important,” said Pereira.
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