Ray Dalio says the American debt crisis is just years away, partly due to President Trump

Dalio is not strange to sounding this topic. Earlier this year, he said economists who believe that America can continue to build the debt burden without resulting not “understand the issue mechanics.

This week, an imminent time frame on the problem, adding that this is partly due to the second Trump administration policies.

Dalio told the newspaper “Dilio” Financial times. “I would like to say three years, give or take a year or two.”

Although Trump promotes his second term as a year of reducing costs and efficiency (indeed, the Ministry of Governmental efficiency under Elon Musk fades from view), the Oval Office raised the eyebrows through the beautiful big bill law, which Trump described as the largest tax reduction in history and the average of the middle class.

But it is not worth re -balances books. If an entity – an audience, private or individual – reduces its debts, it has two options: a lower metaphor or bring more. Reducing tax revenue brings less intentionally, and the Trump administration’s borrowing has not shown signs of slowdown.

CBO said, for example, the draft law will add $ 3.4 trillion to national debt – although most of this cost will be compensated through the revenues resulting from customs tariffs. This is the opinion that economists generally share, that Trump’s White House will not speed up the national debt, but it will not delay that either.

Failure to address the problem will not make it more painful in the future. Currently America The debt heap is 37.3 trillion dollarsAs of July, the US government cost to maintain that debts are more than $ 1 trillion – 17 % of the federal budget for the whole year.

actually, Accounts before luck Customs tariff revenues showed (About 30 billion dollars per month) will not cover a small part of the monthly debt service payments, not to mention paying the upper number. according to Treasury data He saw luck, The interest expenses due on treasury notes in July alone amounted to $ 38.1 billion. Added to that 13.9 billion dollars in treasury bonds, 2.85 billion dollars on the floating price notes (FRN), and a total of 6.1 billion dollars through the assets of securities that protect it by inflation (TIPS). The draft law is water: the total amounts to 60.95 billion dollars for this month.

While Dalio explained that the debt heap that is known about the eye was not a mistake that can be placed on one or one administration, his concern over the current government is that no person will stand in front of the powers that are in favor of the economy.

“I think what is happening now is politically and socially resembling what happened around the world in the period 1930-40,” added the founder of Bridgewateer Associats. Referring to decisions such as the government buy a large share in the chips maker IntelDalio added: “I just describe the relationships between the cause and the result that leads what is happening.

“By the way, during such times, most people are silent because they are afraid of revenge if they criticize.”

When buyers return

With this in mind, Dalio has been in the American economy system full of plate, with interest payments ultimately to other necessary forms of spending.

He said that at some point, American debt buyers will start asking whether the government could work under these conditions: “It is unlikely to keep pace with the demand for debts.”

This is when it is calculated to Les Truss, Professor Warton Joao Gomez is likely to bear It was previously said luck. In 2022, the British Prime Minister supported a small budget that includes a large group of unprofible financial incentives, as it wanders in the city to the extent that the pound returned to its lowest value against the dollar.

“If these people who have been happy yet to buy government debt from major economies,” Gomez said, “You know what, I am not sure if this is a good investment anymore,” Gomez said. I will request that the higher interest rate be persuaded to reserve, “Then we may have a real accident on our hands.”

Submit 2025 Fortune Global 500The final ranking of the largest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.