Putin believes that time is in his class

Open the newsletter to watch the White House for free

Your guide to what the second period of Trump means to Washington, business and the world

“Vladimir, stop!” Donald Trump’s sad message was a Russian bombing recently for Kev.

But it is unlikely that Vladimir Putin will stop. The Russian president believes that the time is in his war on Ukraine – whether in the battlefield or on the international stage. Trump is trying to move forward in a peace plan – with calls for both Putin and Volodimir Zelensky, scheduled for Monday. Ukrainian and Russian leaders are in strange similar positions in the face of Trump’s diplomatic attack.

He neither Putin nor Zelinski loves the appearance of Trump Peace plan Despite the insistence of Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, is “the best way to move forward.” But both Putin and Zelinski understand the risk of facilitating Trump.

As a result, both Russia and Ukraine adopt a similar strategy. They are playing with Trump’s demands to talk about peace – while they hope that the other side will eventually bear the blame, then, when and when the founder of peace efforts.

Ukraine and Russia, under American pressure, can agree to a limited time ceasefire. But the possibilities of this sclerosis in a real peace settlement are still low – because the war goals of Russia and Ukraine are still deeply compatible.

The primary Russian goal is to end the presence of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country. This may not mean the inclusion of the official Ukraine into Russia. But this will require the limits of a treaty on the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian army – and on the country’s diplomatic and military relations with the West. Ukraine will come out of a settlement like a Satali state under Russia’s control and mercy.

The current American plan has been widely criticized in Europe for granting the main Russian demands for the control of the occupied territories and the American recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Crimea. But it is still a long way than Russia wants – about the broader questions of Ukrainian sovereignty and neutrality.

The belief that Putin is still determined to destroy their country, as the Ukrainians warn of the American peace plan. Make regional concessions on the Crimea and East Peninsula is very difficult for Kev. But Zelinski also hesitates to agree to anything that restricts Ukraine’s right to defend itself in future wars – or prevents it from building diplomatic, economic and security relations with the West.

Even if the NATO membership is outside the table, Ukraine still wants to create security guarantees from the West. Otherwise, Ukrainians believe that Russia will simply use a ceasefire as an opportunity to lift sanctions – while preparing for the next round of fighting.

The question of those who blame Trump – if peace talks fail and when they fail – they remain decisive. The best Putin scenario is that Trump revolves around Zelinski-then lifted sanctions on Russia and stops providing weapons and intelligence of the battlefield to Ukraine. The Ukrainian government hopes that Trump has finally concluded that Putin is the true obstacle to peace, and the US President will agree to intensify sanctions on Russia and send new supplies of weapons to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as is the case, the possibilities seem to prefer Russia. Trump has long been admired by Putin and his super member towards Zelinski makes it possible to lose patience with the Ukrainian leader first. Trump also attracts the idea of ​​resuming trade relations with Russia. He prefers to sign profitable new trade deals in Moscow rather than agreeing to expensive new arms transfer operations to Ukraine.

The Kremlin also has the reason for the hope that if Trump is wearing sanctions on Russia, there will be pressure within the European Union to weaken European sanctions. the to fail Among the highly hidden candidates in Russia is to win the presidential elections for Romania during the weekend is a blow to Putin, but it does not guarantee the maintenance of sanctions in the European Union, which must be renewed unanimously-which means obtaining VikTor Orbán on Hungary.

Even if Trump and the European Union are persuaded to maintain sanctions in place, after peace talks failed, there is likely to be a significant decrease in US financial and military support to Ukraine.

The situation in the battlefield is accurately balanced. Russia was slowly gaining land. But Western military analysts believe that Putin’s army may not have enough tanks and armored vehicles to advance quickly – if they want to penetrate Ukrainian lines.

Ukraine’s experience in the defensive war and drones also caused amazing losses to Russia – which is estimated at 1500 soldiers who were killed or injured per day. But some of the same sources, which were martyred in this number, believed that the Ukrainian losses are working in about two -thirds of Russia. Given that the population of Ukraine has a population of approximately a quarter of Russia, Putin has a reason to believe that he will eventually prevail in the war of attrition.

Trump is right when he classifies these heinous levels of “bloodbath” losses. Despite all the criticism of the American president, he is right to try to end the massacre.

The difficulty is that because Putin believes that time is in his class, Moscow has a very little incentive to make concessions necessary to achieve a permanent peace. If Trump really wants to stop “Vladimir”, he will have to put some pressure on him.

[email protected]