It may be a short week in politics, but in prediction markets it can feel forever. Just days after us Opening prediction pulseworld KALSHI and Polymarket I managed to arouse more controversy, sharpening the debate about the extent that these platforms should reach in converting current events into goods.
Last week, we noticed the Bolimark tendency to seize the viral moments and re -pack them as trading opportunities – sometimes with little attention to taste or timing. Since then, the trend has only deepened, and it seems that Calchi has overwhelmed his toes in similar water. The result is the increasing discomfort about whether these markets show or exploit public feelings.
Currently, however, all eyes are installed on a geopolitical stage instead of trading floor. The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has become the latest flash point. KALSHI and Polymarket is busy framing high risk diplomacy in terms of possibilities and payments (as we have seen with Iran), Keen to draw the course of the relationship that can form global affairs for years.
The question is whether traders pick up the pulse of political geography, or simply benefit from the heartbeat.
What is in the prediction markets for this week?
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Kalshi merchants were busy this week, and nothing caught more attention than the Trump Putin summit in Alaska. The most important bet on the statute is to put a nearly 98 % confirmed opportunity on Leaders shake hands Before Saturday (August 16). A small gesture, perhaps, but the prediction markets decided to inflate in an address.
Then came the guessing game on the one who will join Trump on the trip. Early in the week, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio looked like a lock, as it was 92 % circulated. By mid -week, the uproar turned. His possibilities fell, Vice President JD Vance, and Golf Trump’s golf partner and “Putin Whisper”, Steve Whitchf, suddenly looked like a choice from the inside.
By Friday, the market turned again, and Defense Minister Beit Higseth is preferred by 75 %, thanks to the gossip on difficult negotiations on Ukraine.
Of course, the prediction market loves fluctuations, but the reality tends to catch up with them. The final delegation has now been confirmed: Rubio, Vans, Wikov, Higseth, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin. Throughout all the weekly drama, the bets were not completely wrong, only expensive on how they got there.
It was not only political geography that kept the markets guess this week. Kalshi also lights with a bet on who will succeed Jerome Powell once Federal Reserve Chair It ends next year. David Zerfous, the chief strategy on the market in Jeffrez, was the last name he felt in the conversation.
On Wednesday, his possibilities jumped to 15 % after reports appeared that President Trump weighs a wide field of 11 competitors. The list now includes Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, Rick Reader, chief investment official in Blackrock for global fixed income. To get a short extension, get rid of zervos to Kevin Wrash, preferred once, as traders gave him a 17 % chance compared to 14 % of Warsh.
Nevertheless, the singular candidate still holds a governor who feeds Chris Waller, and is 30 % fixed. The National Economic Council, Kevin Haysit, sits in second place by 21 %. Hassett and Warsh saw their jumps after Trump praised “The Kevins” during an interview with CNBC last week, describing them as “very good”.
If the Trump-Putin and Swststakes Chair of the Federal Reserve has kept Kalshi occupied, then Wednesday brought more clear controversy. Reports showed that the platform briefly included a market on whether it was the baseball star Autani He will be arrested. By the afternoon or evening, the market disappeared from the site.
The timing suggested a dancer reaction to the main headlines about the priest and his agent, who was prosecuting a real estate deal in Hawaii. Fishing, of course, is that the issue is civil, not criminal. This made “detention” framing both misleading and infections. URL, which once hosted the market, is no longer operating, but my watchers like Shi have noted its existence quickly.
Even the other bet, on whether the Hawaiian district court will enter with Ohani and his customer in the case, it seems that he has been downloaded. Both decades fell under Kalshi.Fiercely“Categories, in this case” Casewin “and” detention “, which allows rapid publication when a news story collapses.
Kalshi has toured controversial lists before. He has moved away from the most well -known fare, such as betting on sex games that are thrown into WNBA games, but it took the heat earlier this year to spread a market on the fate of the man accused of killing the CEO of UNITEDHELHELTH. The Otani episode indicates that despite the handrails, Kalshi still feels the limits of taste and responsibility in real time.
Polymarket
Polymarkket, who did not miss an opportunity in excessive analysis, on the Trump Putin Summit slices to bet on the size of the sting. will handshake? Will they trade in insults? How long has it been Share remaining? It is the lowest diplomatic summit than the pillar of the pillar.
New Polymarket: What will Trump say during his conference with Putin tomorrow?
Polymark (polymarket) August 14, 2025
As of Friday, merchants were certain of 95 %, that hands would be connected. The real work came in the side markets. The two seats gave a $ 71 chance that Trump talks about a ceasefire, and as much as he was with new sanctions. Even Joe Biden, who is not anywhere near Alaska, has ended in one way or another as a potential veil in betting.
break: "No bag policy" It was implemented in the WNBA game tonight in an attempt to eliminate a dildo archers.
Polymark SPORTS (polymarketsport) August 6, 2025
Polymarket not only runs markets these days, but also chases viruses on social media. Twice last week, X/Twitter accounts published things that were not correct. The most famous was published by her sports account announced:
“Break:” No Bag Policy “was implemented in the WNBA game tonight in an attempt to eliminate a dildo archers.”
The tweet increased more than 43 million views, according to X standards, but there was one problem: the policy is not present. No news outlet mentioned this, and no announcement in the league was supported, and when Yahoo Sports and Sporting News looked at it, they published the pieces that reveal the claim. Office SPORTS correspondent from the front office even with Golden State Valkyries confirmed that a bag policy has not been changed in that night.
I have seen some publications here about changing WNBA’s policy in tonight game in Golden State.
Valkyries told me that this is not true, they did not change the bag policy of the game.
– Margaret Fleming (@mgfleming12) August 6, 2025
This episode is part of the continuous installation of Polymarket with the strange direction of Internet bars on Wnba Courts, a scene that turned into a bet line. Why the company that tells itself as “Fact machine“Very determined to convert fake bags and sexual games to fly into revenue flows is guessing anyone.
Distinguished Image: Canva / Grok
Pamphlet Pulse Pulse: Trump Putin’s meeting dominates as it faces Calci and Polymarket Auditing on market disputes First appear on reading.
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