The same prediction markets had another vital week. Kalshi has been released New American Football Association contracts until Lawyers continued to file lawsuits Faster than you can say “Parlay”.
This time it was The second tribal challengeIt aims to keep like walking outside the tribal lands. But the real development came from NCAA, who finally looked at his head over the barrier and muttered something about the markets of integrity and forecast after that Robinhood launched a professional football market By applying it.
NCAA statement in response to the spirit of football prediction markets:
"Mathematical integrity is very important for NCAA, and we are deeply anxious through the unorganized and unprotected markets that pose a threat to the integrity of competition and the safety of sports students. we will…
Bat Ford (bypatforde) August 21, 2025
Tim Bakli, First Vice President of Foreign Affairs at NCAA, gave us the usual official statement: “Sports integrity is very important to NCAA, and we are deeply interested in the inappropriate and unprotected markets that pose a threat to the integrity of competition and the safety of sports students.” He also promised that NCAA will continue to work with industry leaders “to ensure handrails and regulations”.
All this looks nice, until you notice some lost ingredients. Firstly, Kalshi has already been organized. You may not like how to organize it, and you may think CFTC plays a more careful role in the world, but technically, it’s organization. Polymarket, for the record, still can not serve users legally, so NCAA does not need to lose sleep on this part yet.
Kalshi has integrity partner, IC360, although this is a voluntary handshake, not an organizational condition. So when NCAA says she wants to “work with industrial leaders to help guarantee handrails”, what does that mean? Because alerting the spoiler – there are no regulations. Even if CFTC wakes up tomorrow with a sudden passion for mathematical contracts, we will be years from the actual rules book.
Therefore, NCAA is left with a comfort option directly to Kalshi and friends. This is not exactly a safe bet. At the same time, the markets are moving forward anyway. What prevents KALSHI from presenting the allegations of university athletes? Not much. CFTC will not run on a white horse to protect March Madness. The current supervision of Kalshi does not shout a “line in the sand”.
Polymark is not about to sit at this forever. crypto.com until it is involved in the betting style as well. NCAA’s opponents multiply the heads of Hydra, and all NCAA that the battle brought so far is a strict press statement.
It is more than that the mud is that the prediction markets are not the only problem that knocks on the door. There is a small issue of “general alert intelligence” that works with artificial intelligence materials, which seems to be a plot device from a group of technical markets but may end up in ways that NCAA has not even started imagining.
In short, NCAA can continue to nullify his hands around integrity. But unless things accelerate, he risk becoming the organization that was “very worried” while everyone began to bet on whether the midfielder will excessively in his eighth chapter.
What is in the prediction markets for this week?
Like
Kalshi only cannot be escaped Drama drama These days and the latest obsession is Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hall in Wyoming, where central bankers in the world gather to speak in the store between 21 and 23 August. Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve Current, is still the undesirable task of the Central Bank.
The market is desperate to drop hints. For five consecutive meetings, the Federal Reserve held fixed prices, ignoring Trump’s cries for immediate discounts. Political makers want more clarity about what the president’s tariff pays, deporting him and the inability to predict the economy. In Jackson Hall, Powell is expected to draw his last speech in the annual central banking before he was running out in May.
Of course, kalshi users already Trading on fine words Powell will be used. More than $ 235,000 is equipped with conditions ranging from the clear “symposium” to the clear “risk balance”. 57 % of merchants are betting on Powell’s bet that will talk about the demobilization of workers.
Meanwhile, the eagles revolve around the successor of Powell. Christopher, Er, Michel Buman and Trump’s ally Kevin Haysit are all competitors for Powell’s chairs if the music chairs at the Federal Reserve begins worthy.
In a side note, the prediction markets suddenly wander with working on The following democratic presidential candidate. California Governor Gavin New Zoum, despite the start of the fire for the sake It claims to prevent a casino After a pocket of $ 2 million of tribal donations, he witnessed his possibility Spercoket. He now sits 28 %, conveniently ahead of Alexandria Okasio Cortez by 13 %, with approximately $ 17 million betting in general. Pete Buttigieg, at the present time, runs in one numbers by 9 %.
Breaking: Gavin Newsom’s possibilities to be the 2028 democratic candidate to a new level all the time pic.twitter.com/puwwnpr8g
– KALSHI (KALSHI) August 20, 2025
It seems that newsom has opened Playbook Trump. In recent days, he posted itself on top of Mount Rushmour, surveyed by Taker Karlson, Kid Rock, and Holk Hulk Al -Majah, and he was transferred to writing in all hats on social media. “He is trying to imitate President Trump,” said Steve Bannon PoliticoAnd the markets, at least, began to believe that it is working.
If this is not enough, the prediction markets collide with artificial intelligence. Enter the ProPhet Arena, a project outside the Sigma Lab Laboratory at the University of Chicago, which tests the models of artificial intelligence not on the previous data but in the events that were not resolved directly, many of which were withdrawn directly from Kalshi and Polymarkket. The researchers wrote: “By establishing assessments in events that have not been resolved in the real world, Nabi Arena guarantees a flat stadium.”
Presentation of Arena Prophet Arena – AI Standard of General AIs.
That is, can Amnesty International really predict the future by connecting today’s points?
What makes it special?
– It cannot be penetrated. Most criteria saturate over time, but here you face live, invisible models … pic.twitter.com/rhwr5wlu9D
– The Prophet of Arena (Profitarena) August 17, 2025
So far, the machines seem to carry their own. GPT-5 leads the leaders with a BRIER 82.21 %, while Openai’s O3-MINI performs the initial profits when its calls are converted into simulation betting. KALSHI itself was abandoning artificial intelligence, which recently binds with Grok’s Elon Musk, while Polymarket began to spit out summaries from AI to its markets.
If the machines continue to improve, they can strip all the second feelings and guesses that suffer from human plague. No feelings of the intestine, do not flip the mood, just a cold prediction. In this case, the old “wisdom of the crowd” may soon be forced to participate in the theater with the wisdom of the algorithm.
Polymarket
If Kalshi keeps things on the buttons, then Polymarket is happily tending to a scene Powell Jackson Hall look. According to her loud social reputation, merchants pushed the limits of what is considered a market. About 83 % believe that Powell will mention the epidemic, 63 % bet on unemployment, and the most popular bet ever is whether it will be interested in saying “Good Morning”.
Behind the betting bets, the real question lies whether Powell Sinn indicates the recent federal reserve policy. Investors often expect a quarter of a point reduction in September, but with Deutsche Bank warning earlier this week, the title may end with “creating uncertainty” instead of air clearing.
Distinguished Image: Canva / Grok
Pamphlet Pulse of prediction: Confronting Calchi and Bolimarket Competition from Nabi Arena, in addition to Jerome Powell speech First appear on reading.
[og_img]
Source link