It is a moment of covenant as the latest technique for general purposes in history, artificial intelligence, which constitutes itself in an industry. Many depend on these early days, especially the fate of the leader of the industry, from a mile, from artificial intelligence. In terms of another technology for general purposes, the Internet, it will become like colossus Google Or to forget like altavista?
No one can know, but here is how to think about it.
Openai’s dominance It is remarkable. As the ChatgPT creator, it recently attracted 78 % of the unique daily visitors to the basic models sites, with six competitors divided the rest, according to a recent report from 8 pages of JP Morgan. Even with this wide forefront, the report shows that Openai expands its margin for its many smaller competitors, including even GEINI, which is part of Google and her giant father, alphabet (2024 revenues: $ 350 billion).
The great question now is whether Openai can maintain its wide progress (history will say no) or at least continue as the pioneer of industry. The answer is highly dependent on the Openai trench, a Warren Buffett A term for any worker that protects the company and cannot be broken easily-consider the brand of Coca-Cola or Scale BNSF economies, to mention two successful Buffett investments. In this count, JP Morgan analysts are not optimistic.
Specifically, they admit that although Openai has led the industry in creating its models, this strategy is a “increasingly fragile trench.” Example: The latest company, GPT-5, included multiple progress, but it is disappointing for many users. As the competitors are inevitably continuing, analysts conclude that “the negative model is an increasingly possible result.” With the presence of innovations that suffer from a short life, Openai must now become “a more focused organization on products and a variety that can work widely while maintaining its location” at the upper part of the industry-which the company has not yet appeared.
In sum, Openai can maintain its leading rank in the industry, but it will not be easy, and betting on it may be risky.
However, a different view indicates that Openai is closer to creating a sustainable trench. It comes from Robert Segel, the lecturer at the College of Business for Business in Stanford, who is also a former executive and executive director in various companies, and a lot of technology. It argues that Openai already along the way to achieve a valuable feature, and the obstruction: the more customers use something, the less the possibility of switching into a competitor. In the case of Openai, “People will not only move to confusion, Gemini or other solutions if they get a better result,” he says. However, this becomes unlikely because artificial intelligence learns; The more you use a specific AI engine, the more you learn from you and what you want. “If you continue to ask questions in Chatgpt, which you learn your behavior better, and you like, there is no reason to leave as long as it is a competitor.”
Now combine this logic with Openai’s behavior. “Their strategy seems to be everywhere,” said Segegel. The most famous, Openai Chatgpt 3.5 issued for the public in 2022 for free, and attracted one million users in five days and 100 million in two months. In addition, the company collected a lot of investment early in the game, after it was founded in 2015. Thus, Siegel says, “Openai can continue to run and use capital as a trench so that they can do all the things they need to be everywhere.”
But Siegel, JP MORGAN analysts, and everyone else knows that many can make mistakes. A clear threat to Openai and most of its competitors represents an open source model like Deepseek in China, which seems to be well working at much lower costs. The investment capital that flowed to Openai may dry up as hundreds of other startups from artificial intelligence compete for financing. JP Morgan and Siegel agrees that the unconventional judgment structure must be fixed in Openai; Although the recently proposed structure has not been officially disclosed, it is led by a non -profit organization, which may worry the investors looking for profits.
As for the trenches, it is clear that Openai is in the best position to build or reinforce one. But given the era of artificial intelligence, the full concept of corporate suffocation may become meaningless. How long will it be, if this is not really done, before the opponent asks his artificial intelligence engine, “How can we defeat Openai?”
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