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OPEC+ has announced another significant increase in oil production for the month of July in the last sign that the cartel was determined to relax the first segment of its long production cuts as quickly as possible.
Eight members of the Oil Production Group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, said on Saturday that they will mark the headlines in July by 411,000 barrels.
The decision to evaluate the volatile capacity for the third month in a row means that the group can add up to 1.4 million barrels to the global market between April and the end of July.
Some eight countries concerned with excessively producing their shares, which means that the final increase in OPEC+ may be less. But the new offer will test the elasticity of the oil price, which was already beaten due to the economic uncertainty resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff.

“OPEC+ does not manage (run) taps – they are rewroteing the text,” said Jorge Lyon, a former OPEC employee now at Rystad. “The alarm has rang, June removed all doubt and July feels like a barrel (gun) loaded.”
OPEC+ has been holding the offer since 2022 in an attempt to support prices. It is scheduled to remain 2 million b/d through all members of OPEC+ and a voluntary reduction of 1.65 million B/D by eight members in its place until the end of 2026. A second voluntary cut of 2.2 million b/d was imposed by the same eight members later. This is the set of restrictions that are now not binding.
When the Cartel originally announced its long -term plan to relax on the volunteer reduction this year, the agreement had strengthened the group’s joint production goal with about 137,000 barrels in the month between April 2025 and September 2026. Most likely, the group will all have prepared 2.2 million B/D in the outputs of curbing by the end of September 2025, throughout the year.
The rapid jaw was largely moved by Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who believed that the burden of discounts was no longer shared. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was attending the largest share of discounts while the OPEC+ members were constantly producing over their shares, reducing the total effect of the effort.
In total, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has reduced its production by five years in the past three years to about 9 million barrels, which is the lowest level since 2011 except for the Corunaf virus.
Given the failure of discounts in maintaining the high prices, RIYADH was keen to relax on the B/D.2 million chip, which includes 1 million barrels of Curbed production from Saudi Arabia, as soon as possible, according to people familiar with the thinking of the Saudi Energy Minister.
Also, allowing production to rise and fall helped to prefer Carrie with Trump, who praised the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during an American visit to the region this month.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has sought to restore discipline by agreeing on new plans to compensate for excessive production, but it seems that some OPEC members, especially Kazakhstan, ignored these directives and continued to pump excess oil from their shares.
According to OPEC, the Deputy Minister of Energy in OPEC, his country will not reduce production, according to a statement published by the Russian News Agency.
Analysts said the next question is whether the group will move to relax on the second group of voluntary discounts, which represents 1.65 million barrels of inactivity.
“This segment of cuts was not expected to be treated until early 2027, but with OPEC+ speeding up the production and prices strategy that has proven flexible, the broader remedial for the group’s production ceiling may come much closer to what was originally expected.”
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