Oil prices decreased. Here where this trouble can be spent.

The oil -producing countries are preparing for a rugged ride this year, with a decrease in prices to the lowest levels in four years viewed as a preliminary sign of worrying about the turmoil on the horizon.

Low prices benefit any country that seeks to reduce its fuel bill. But in oil -producing countries, low prices can feed economic problems, and sometimes political turmoil, as governments reduce spending.

Analysts who were already expected to decrease oil prices due to softening the demand said, amid increasing global production that the possibility of a trade tariff and the general climate of uncertainty may deepen the problems of producers.

“The sharp diving of prices and total fluctuations sends a very strong indication that the global economy will play this year, which will translate into a lower oil demand,” said Gregory Pro, a specialist in the political and gas geography with the Eurasia Group, a New York Risk Analysis Organization.

The wealthy producers may be able to expand the strike

Earlier this year, the fixed raw price of Benchmark retained about $ 73 a barrel, which is high enough to maintain the budgets of most producing countries. But some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are planning ambitious development at a price of at least $ 90 a barrel, analysts say.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to giant projects to try to diversify their economies away from oil. Although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is paying the program for its 2030 vision development program outside its annual budget, the huge and future city project depends on oil revenues.

Analysts said that to keep these plans amid low prices, the richest Gulf countries must attract money from their huge protected money or borrowing. Analysts said that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are all easily accessible to international credit, and can maintain this for years with citizens who are unlikely to feel the effects.

A different story for Iran and Iraq

In Iran, international sanctions cleared oil clients. There is China, but its demand for oil has declined significantly amid economic slowdown. There are small independent refinery refineries vulnerable to secondary sanctions, which the United States imposed against two of them in recent months. Analysts said that to attract buyers, Iran would likely offer very slope discounts.

Iran is negotiating with Washington on the future of its nuclear program; Any agreement can bring penalties. But this is unlikely this year.

Iran also faces increased pressure to reduce spending by lowering local energy benefits. When I did it in 2019, anti -government riots erupted and placed strongly. “The maintenance of energy prices is very low because they know that if they do not do that, they are at a relatively great risk of uprisings, riots and demonstrations,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at KPLER.

In the vicinity, Iraq depends on oil for an estimated 80 percent of government revenues, and therefore the decrease in prices would force it to take measures such as not paying public sector salaries to the time sectors, a step that makes sure to create local discontent. Since the country is not under sanctions, it can also borrow internationally to cover its bills, although this is costly.

Weakness in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela

The two governments of Libya each carry half of the country. One runs the bank that takes oil payments from abroad and the other controls the oil fields. Analysts said that any decrease in prices is likely to increase the tensions between the two with the knight on revenue.

The Nigerian economy is still terribly vulnerable to oil revenues, which depends on it to help support energy prices. A new, complete special canein can reduce the type of fuel supply problems that can raise political turmoil.

Regardless of Iran, the other global product most exposed to price fluctuations is Venezuela, whose economy collapsed during the decrease in prices in 2014-15. Analysts said that public sector companies and enlarged government salaries were dependent on the high oil prices that when they collapsed, they ignited the economic problems that followed the widespread protests violently set by the government.

Assistance from Russia and Iran helped the yeast of potential repercussions this time, as increasing the ability of production and refining means that Venezuela is unlikely to face the type of fuel that caused the power outages on a large scale and general anger.

After that, there is Russia

In Russia, about a third Federal budgetDiscounting about $ 70 a barrel of oil, comes from energy revenues. With sanctions, Russia deducts oil about $ 10 a barrel; The price of $ 60 coincides with the maximum price imposed in 2022 after it invaded Ukraine.

Strong oil and gas sales, especially in China and India, have helped isolate the ordinary Russians from many economic repercussions from the war. She has already ate the Kremlin in its backup money, however, the low price drops would pay for war, and everything else, is a challenge.

Analysts said that Moscow may still have enough cash reserves for confusion, but in the short term, there may be pain.