Oil prices can decrease further as the main OPEC+ members rise to obtain a market share

They said in a statement that the oil ministers of the V8 Group – which includes the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day (BPD) from next month.

These countries have already increased by 2.2 million barrels in recent months.

In their statement, which was issued after an online meeting on Sunday, they said that the new incoming session may see up to 1.65 million barrels per day to the market.

“OPEC+ the market has caught out of the day – instead of temporary suspension, the group referred to an ambition with a high production. The barrels may be small, but the message is large,” said George Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

He said: “OPEC gives+ the priorities of the market share even if it risks softer.”

Oil prices are currently hovering about 65-70 dollars a barrel, after declining 12 percent this year as international producers outside OPEC+ increased supply and definitions.

OPEC+-which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of 12 Countries (OPEC) and its allies-in recent years that have been seen through many cuts that amount to nearly six million barrels per day.

Analysts, up to a week ago, were saying that V8 would likely maintain the current production levels in October.

By raising it, even through 137,000 relatively modest barrels, V8 indicated instead that Opec+ was ready for weather prices less than $ 60 a barrel if that means restoring the market share.

“In fact, the actual production boost will be much smaller, given the limits of capacity and the mechanism of compensation. But perception often matters to material barrels,” Leon said.

However, he said: “This step raises questions about unity: countries like Russia depend on the high prices to finance their war machine, while others are ready to test lower prices for the market share.”

Geopolitical factors

He said the real test of Opec+ will be the last three months of this year, a period in which seasonal demand tends to decline.

Oil specialists closely monitor the Moscow war in Ukraine, as well as developments related to the United States-Russia-geopolitical factors that may affect oil prices.

US President Donald Trump, whose efforts between Russia and Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough, have failed recently from Russian oil and those who buy it.

In August, a higher tariff for India was imposed as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil.

In a meeting with Ukraine’s allies who gathered in Paris on Thursday, Trump told the leaders through a video conference that he felt frustrated by the purchases of the European Union from Russian oil, especially by Hungary and Slovakia.

The curbing of Russian exports can lead to the liberalization of the market space for OPEC+.

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