OECD cuts the expectations of American economic growth due to the definitions and uncertainty in politics

Expectations for Economic growth In the United States, it was reduced due to the high tariff in a new report issued by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday.

OECD expectations of US economic growth increased to 1.6 % in 2025 and 1.5 % in 2026, much lower than 2.8 % growth in GDP (GDP) recorded last year.

The group attributed the slowdown forecasts to “a significant increase in the rate of effective tariffs for imports and revenge on some commercial partners, uncertainty in high economic policy, a great slowdown in net immigration, and a significant reduction in the federal workforce.”

The inflation would also increase the annual address to 3.9 % by the end of 2025 due to the high import prices of Increased customs tariffsBefore mitigating next year amid the growth of the moderate GDP and higher levels of unemployment.

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“The risks to dropping growth tend to the downside, including more essential Summary of economic activity In the face of uncertainty, OECD is written from OECD.

“There has been a major shift in American commercial policy since February through a wide range of ads related to new definitions and other commercial restrictions, some of which were reflected, delayed or modified, along with Revenge by some commercial partnersThe report said.

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In prediction, the president Donald Trump The definitions that were valid in mid -May will remain in place during the rest of 2025 until 2026. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted that the actual tariff rate on Chinese imports rises about 30 %, while the rate of tariffs on other trade partners rises about 10 %, on average.

“This represents an unprecedented increase in the average rate of effective tariff, raising it from about 2.5 % to more than 15 %, which is the highest level since World War II,” wrote the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “While the new customs tariff may increase the incentives that can be produced in the United States, the high rates of imports will reduce the real income of consumers and increase the price of imported intermediate commodities. Definitions and uncertainty in politics are disrupted and the value chains affect negatively.”

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The expectations said that the federal reserve will be able to reduce monetary policy and reduce interest rates as soon as inflation is giving up, as long as inflation expectations are well designed. He also pointed out that the federal government will need to curb BudgetWhich is expected to grow larger in the coming years, and wrote that “the major financial amendment will be required for several years.”

The deficit is expected to increase from about 7.5 % of GDP in 2024 to more than 8 % in 2026, with General debts to GDP The rate of 100 % by the end of 2026.

“The new tariff revenues and spending discounts resulting from the contraction of the federal workforce will be to reduce deficit,” although the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has noticed that “these effects will be exposed to more than a slowdown in the growth of revenues from the weakest economic activity, as well as the expected years of the financial package for the fiscal year 2026.”

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This package will extend the provisions of expiration for 2017 Tax discounts and jobs lawIn addition to reducing personal taxes and other companies, which enhances spending on defense security and borders, with discounts in the medicaid spending. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the package is “responsible for most of the percentage expected in the gross domestic product in the deficit in 2026.”