We may all get a $ 5,000 “Doge Dividend” if the cost reduction committee from Elon Musk is able to submit it. But the national debt is likely to be a balloon of at least $ 4 trillion in any case, which will be an additional $ 12,000 in new debts to each American.
Welcome to the mysterious Trump world.
President Trump wants everyone to know that the alleged Doj Committee, headed by Musk, is working hard on the costs of working in the federal bureaucracy in favor of the American taxpayer. The goal is at least $ 500 billion in annual savings, which will be about 7 % of all federal spending.
Trump also wants to collect new returns through the definitions of imports. He is very admired by his financial acumen that he believes that a historical moment is close to it. “The balance budget now ???” Trump Posted on social media on February 20. “Let’s give it a snapshot. A lot of money is coming from the definitions.”
Here’s the deception: Trump shines the spotlight on the next pennies, with no attention to hundreds of exit. On the positive side of the professor’s book there is a dawj and the definitions, which, in order to be fair, can generate some additional revenues and costs. But on the downside there are tax cuts that are likely to be more complications. There is no chance for Trump Cytin between the federal budget, and almost certainly the national debt will not be enlarged only under Trump.
DOGE’s government efficiency voltage may be an interesting exercise, but $ 500 billion of annual savings is a very ambitious goal. The entire federal workforce destroyed 3 million people will only save about $ 270 billion with the United States leaving without a functional government. Simply, there are not enough employees to shoot or contracts represented in termination or real estate for sale to obtain approximately $ 500 billion of savings. Real money is the benefits that go directly to voters, including social security programs, medical care, medical aid, and old warriors, as well as defense, traditionally difficult.
The Musk Committee, however, claims to have already found $ 55 billion of savings. He fails to test Sham, and budget experts say The amount of real savings may be a small part of it. But the possibility that the money is already found raises imaginations about how it is spent.
Trump says he wants to restore 20 % of Dog’s tax savings, “A”Dog Distribution“This compensates the Americans for everything they lost in government jobs. Here comes the number of $ 5,000 from: Dog’s original goal of Musk 2 trillion dollars in annual savings, and 20 % of this will reach about $ 5,000 For every family paid in America. It does not matter that Musk has reduced the goal of its savings from $ 2 trillion to $ 500 billion is still unreasonable. 20 percent of $ 500 billion will be only $ 1,250 per family taxes, a strange number that is not very convincing.
Until $ 5,000. This is the number.
What will not hear any of Trump’s advisers to discuss is the additional debts that are likely to make taxpayers. Trump wants to extend all the tax cuts that end at the end of 2025 Add at least 4 trillion dollars for national debt During the next decade, or 400 billion dollars per year. Trump has blocked a large group of other tax cuts, such as canceling income taxes on the party’s income, paying additional work, social security benefits – and the Republicans who control Congress making legislation to make these people a reality. If Congress passes all the proposed tax cuts of Trump, it may add more than 10 trillion dollars to national debt during the next ten years, or a trillion dollars per year.
It gets worse.
Trump is in the middle The launch of 6000 workers in the internal revenue serviceOr 6 % of the total tax agency employees. If Trump is serious about achieving a balance between the federal budget, the last thing he does is to spoil the tax interest. The Tax Authority task is legally owned by people. There is already The “tax gap” reaches $ 688 billion. The tax gap is the money that the Americans legally condemn the government in taxes, but they did not pay. Neither of these funds are the taxes due by workers who earn most of their income from the salary; Most of them are the money that the investor category tries to hide through complex tax skilled.
The government will never gather every penny with tax fraud. But it can definitely collect more. In 2022, when the Democrats took control of Congress, President Biden fell on the law It means new financing for the Tax Authority To update old computer systems and employ more auditors and examiners, and providing other taxes due from Dodgers backed by armies of lawyers and accountants. Republicans have since tried to return this funding, as if there was something wrong in paying people who pay the taxes they owe. Since Republicans control the congressional councils now, they may have sounds to calm the tax interest again. Musk seems to be starting from the agency’s discrimination.
Numbers Game: President Donald Trump and Elon Musk at the Oval Office. (Photo/Alex Brandon/Associated Press) ·Associated Press
Most Americans cannot follow all this, which is what Trump depends on. So, here is a cheating paper that determines the place where everything seems to be directed:
Doug: Its goal is $ 500 billion in annual savings. It is likely to be a miracle if it saves five. The optimistic result will be $ 100 billion in annual savings.
Customs tariff revenues: Total federal revenue from customs tariffs on imports is about $ 80 billion per year. Trump can double this reasonably, but at some point, the high costs paid by American companies and consumers will educate imports, weaken the tariff income, and slow down the entire economy. The optimistic number of new Trump tariffs may be an additional $ 100 billion.
Therefore, DOGE and New Drifs may generate an additional $ 200 billion of federal revenue. But the discounts in the Tax Authority mean less tax revenues collected due to the weakest implementation. It is imagined that the destroyed tax authority will abandon at least 200 billion dollars, and to neutralize the gains from Doug and definitions.
Tax cuts: Congress may come with some discounts in spending that reduce the damage to national debt, but the additional cost may be the minimum $ 3 trillion over a decade, or $ 300 billion annually. The upper range is at least $ 10 trillion of additional debts over a decade, or 1 trillion dollars per year.
In the best possible scenario, Trump tax cuts cost $ 300 billion annually, as it was compensated by $ 200 billion in savings from Duji and definitions.
In a more likely scenario, tax discounts cost $ 500 billion annually, and to compensate for only DOGE/TIFF savings than that.
It is also possible that many DOGE savings will be deported through litigation and special Congress efforts to prevent discounts in the programs they created and agreed to them in the first place. Definitions can frighten the markets and cause Trump to decline. Meanwhile, Congress can pass a broader set of tax cuts, adding $ 600 billion, $ 800 billion, or even $ 1 trillion for national debt every year.
So, if your DOGE distributions arrive, you may save them on the rainy day that will definitely come, when someone must calculate all this additional debt.
Rick Newman is a big column writer Yahoo financing. Follow it Blouse and x: @Rickjnewman.
