New leaders in Lebanon face a test with Israel’s readiness to keep its forces there

When Israel and Hezbollah signed a temporary truce in November, the agreement was welcomed as a first step towards ending the bloody war in Lebanon for decades.

Hezbollah and Israel agreed to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon within 60 days. The Lebanese army and the United Nations peacekeeping forces will secure the region. And if the armistice withstands, the negotiators hoped that the agreement would always become, which restores a quantity of calm to the troubled area.

But with the end of the 60 -day truce on Sunday, a completely different scenario began to be formed.

The Israeli forces seemed ready to stay in parts of southern Lebanon, which raised fears between the Lebanese The continued Israeli occupation and renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Avoid these possibilities is a decisive test for the new leaders of Lebanon, Mr. President Joseph Aoun And the Prime Minister in charge Nawaf SalamIn their endeavor to restore political control from Hezbollah, the dominant political and military power in the country.

Experts say that any long -term Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon can transmit a new life in Hezbollah, the group that was established to liberate Lebanon from the Israeli occupation, which portrayed itself as the only force capable of protecting the borders of Lebanon.

It also threatens to remove the current political momentum in Lebanon from its course, as the country is witnessing, for the first time in decades, a serious trend towards fully strengthening military power within the state, and getting rid of the justification that Hezbollah provides for its huge arsenal of weapons.

Muhannad Al -Hajj Ali, deputy director of research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said that the focus in Lebanon is now on “the disarmament of Hezbollah and the transition from the era in which Hezbollah was seen as having the right to obtain weapons.” He added that any long -term Israeli occupation “would stop this momentum, which occurs organically.”

Israeli officials have expressed fears that Hezbollah is still active in southern Lebanon and doubts about this The ability of the Lebanese army to thwart group. Hezbollah officials did not respond to these accusations, but they said they were “committed” to respect the conditions of the armistice.

Lebanese army officials said on Saturday that they were ready to complete their spread in the south, but they were late “as a result of the Israeli enemy’s delay in withdrawing,” according to a statement by the Lebanese army.

The 60 -day truce entered into force more than a year after Hezbollah began firing missiles on Israeli sites in solidarity with its ally Hamas, the Palestinian armed group in Gaza, which led the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. Israel responds to The assassination of Hezbollah leadersAnd the settlement of towns and villages along the border and the invasion of southern Lebanon.

Before the deadline on Sunday, thousands of Lebanese who were displaced by the war from their homes along the southern border were preparing to return to their homes. On Saturday, the main highway leading from the capital Beirut to southern Lebanon was filled with cars. And it seemed that few people trembled from the news of the Israeli forces’ survival in parts of the south or automatic phone calls from the Israeli army on Saturday to warn them of returning to their homes.

The automatic voice said: “You are forbidden to return to your home until further notice.” “Anyone driving his car south endangering his life.”

It seems that the Israeli forces continue their efforts that lasted during the 60 -day truce to demolish and close roads between some villages in southern Lebanon, according to the local media. Israel is currently occupying nearly 70% of the areas it seized after Lebanon’s invasion of last fall. According to the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese army also warned of the dangers of unexploded ammunition in some villages and towns. However, it seemed that a few Lebanese were inhibited from returning to their homes.

“The people of the earth will enter their path by force,” said Abdul Karim Hassan, a banana farmer in the village of Al -Maalia in southern Lebanon, whose house was destroyed during the war. “If I had a house there, I would go to it tomorrow tomorrow.”

Hezbollah did not mention how to respond to the continuous Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory. On Friday, Hezbollah officials warned in a statement that if the Israeli forces in Lebanon remain on Sunday, this will be a “attack on Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new chapter of the occupation.”

Some Hezbollah deputies pledged revenge. But other Hezbollah officials – who have been subjected to military and political strikes in recent months – have instead have been responsible for responding to Israel to the Lebanese government. The group’s statement said on Friday that the matter is up to the state “to restore the land and extract it from the grip of the occupation.”

The transfer of responsibility this is a tried and real tactic to Hezbollah, which only called on the state a few months to provide care for thousands of Lebanese displaced because of the war that the country pushed. However, the political positions taken by its basic principle is the resistance of the Israeli occupation that reflects the current weakness of Hezbollah.

After 14 months of fighting, the military ranks of the Shiite group were subjected to strong strikes, and its pro -support base became exhausted after months of displacement and destruction. Israel also weakened Iran, which threw a shadow of doubt about Iran’s ability to provide millions of dollars to rebuild the homes of Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon, as it did after the Hezbollah war with Israel, which lasted in 2006.

In neighboring Syria, the rebels overthrew the ally of Iran, the dictator Bashar al -Assad, and cut off the land bridge of Hezbollah to receive weapons and money from Iran.

These strikes weakened Hezbollah’s iron grip on political power in Lebanon, which led to the transformation of political sand in the country for the first time in decades. Earlier this month, Lebanese lawmakers elected a new president, Mr. Aoun, after years of political stagnation that many analysts attributed to Hezbollah. A few days later, the lawmakers, a prominent diplomat, have long been opposed by Hezbollah, as Prime Minister.

In a country where no major political decision was taken without Hezbollah’s blessing for years, these developments highlighted the size of the land that the group lost.

But the Middle East experts have warned against excluding Hezbollah’s political weight so far. And if Israel continues to occupy Lebanon, it may be able to revitalize the base of the party’s support that is dominated by Shiite Muslims, while looking for a shepherd and a protector against the Israeli forces.

“I think any of the two parties has no interest in resuming the war,” said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at St. Joseph University in Beirut. But as long as Israel occupies Lebanon, it revives Hezbollah’s speech.

Sarah Shito contributed to the reports.