MOODY US Economic Economic expert warns on the edge of recession amid weak job data

The prominent economist warns that the American economy is on the brink of recession after the economic data received last week indicated that the conditions of the labor market are abandoning high inflation, which may complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to support the economy.

On Monday, Mark Zandy, the chief economist in Moody’s Analytics, wrote on Monday, a post on X that “the economy exists on Stagnation-Quoting the report of the weakest jobs than the expected on Friday and inflation data from the previous day, which showed that the prices of consumers increased as indicating the situation of unstable economy.

He wrote: “Consumer spending has fallen, construction and manufacturing contract, and employment is scheduled to decrease. With high inflation, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to save.”

Zandy explained that while Unemployment It remained relatively low, because “the work of the workforce has gone alongside” with the decrease in the number of workers born abroad, along with the workforce participation rate.

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He also said that “the freezing of employment at the economy level, especially for new graduates and the decline in working hours”, tells us about the conditions in the labor market.

Zandy said that the customs tariff developed by the Trump administration had a greater impact on family budgets and companies’ profits, while the immigration campaign has hindered the labor market.

“It is not ambiguous that the economy is fighting; blame for increasing customs tariffs and a very restricted immigration policy. The customs tariff is increasingly cut in the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American families.

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The Ministry of Commerce stated on Thursday that the preferred federal reserve Inflation scale It increased in June, with a PCE enlargement number increasing from 2.3 % to 2.6 % on an annual basis.

This number is much higher Federal Reserve The target of inflation is 2 %.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell He previously said that if the central bank was arrested in a position in which economic conditions are pushed away from the achievement of both the double -mandate goals of 2 % and the maximum employment, this will direct its monetary policy to support which is beyond the goal of the Federal Reserve.

Last Friday, the Bls Statistics Office (BLS) stated that the American economy He added 73,000 jobs In July – less than the profit of 110,000 jobs estimated by the economists included by LSEG. The agency also reviewed the employment in May and June to the bottom by 258,000 combined jobs.

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These great reviews prompted the president Donald Trump To dismiss the BLS Commissioner, the president claimed without evidence that the agency manipulated job data for political purposes before last year’s elections.

Zandy defended the devotion of economic data in a follow -up publication, saying that great reviews occur regularly when the economy is subject to a transition or the recession.

“Any idea is that economic data offends the fact that the performance of the economy is far -reaching. Data always suffers from great reviews when the economy is at a turning point, such as stagnation,” Zandy wrote. “Thus, it is not surprising at all that we are witnessing great declining reviews of the employment numbers of salary statements.”

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“Given the discounts in particular – not because BLS was forced to reduce employees, although this cannot help, but because the government often does Government jobs And retreat, the cuts are taken in the reviews. “