Military experts: Iran’s Iranian power has diminished after devastating attacks

At a historic junction, Iran agreed to a ceasefire on Monday after a Limited strike On an American military base in Qatar.

The agreement, which was interviewed by the president Donald TrumpIt represents a dramatic escalation after 12 days of war.

Although the ceasefire deal appears to be swinging, experts say that Iran’s decision to decline reflects the heavy losses that its military structure took into the wake of coordination US and Israeli strikes On nuclear sites, missile stocks and major production facilities.

“Iran cannot win this war,” said Danny Urbach, a military historian at the Hebrew University. “They have lost nearly 60 % of their bombers. Even if they still have about 1,000 long -range missiles, without enough operating bombers, they cannot effectively spread them.”

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According to us and Israeli officials, the attack on Al Idid on the base In Qatar – the largest American base in the Middle East – no victims and only damage caused. The strike appears to have been carefully calibrated.

“The strike in Qatar was coordinated with the Americans and was not intended to persuade or cause real harm,” Sima Shin, a former official in Mossad and the great expert of Iran at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies. “Iran still has weaponsBut it does not want to attract the United States into an all -out war. They know that closing the Strait of Hormuz will end up badly for them. “

“What remains is largely intact is the ability of the Iranian short -term,” said Blaise Mayszal, Vice President of Politics at the Jewish Institute of National Security of America (Gensa). “These are thousands of missiles, missiles and drones that cannot You reach IsraelBut it can absolutely strike us with bases in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. This is what we saw in the strike on the friend. “

Misztal added that Iran’s remaining arsenal is “sophisticated and available in much larger quantities” from its long -range weapons. “The danger is not only for American forces. Iran is still targeting energy infrastructure, major cities and commercial shipping throughout the Gulf.”

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In 2024 resultsRetired General Frank McKenzi, the former commander of the US Central Command, warned that the American bases in the Gulf are very vulnerable to Iranian missile attacks and drone. He pointed out that facilities, such as friendly, are just minutes away from Iranian launch sites, which leaves a little time to respond – and called for the strategic transformation in the west and the strongest missile defense integration with regional allies to overcome the “tyranny of geography”.

When the United States re -placed some aircraft and ships before the expected Iranian revenge, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, confirmed that the defense measures have been strengthened throughout Iraq and Syria.

Analysts say the real reason for Iran’s climbing is the huge scope of its losses.

Urbach explained that Iran is now facing what the military scene described William Tikomsie Sherman as “a group of bad options.” “They have no money to rebuild everything,” he said. “They will have to choose between recovering the missile program, supporting agents, or reviving their nuclear infrastructure. They cannot do everything.”

“Iran is still the pioneering sponsor of the terrorist state in the world. They concluded assassinations on American soil before. They carried out attacks worldwide,” Maysat said. “They have invested extensively in Cyber ​​since the Stuxnet attack in 2010. Energy infrastructure, regional systems, and even American goals – are all at risk.”

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Misztal added: “Will Iran learn enough lesson from these attacks to alleviate its behavior? This hostility is essential to his identity, and he cannot abandon it without losing legitimacy.”