Los Angeles will remain at high fire risk next week

Devastating wildfires continued across the Los Angeles metro area on Friday, extending mandatory evacuations and closing schools across the region. Next week holds little promise for relief; Conditions will remain favorable for existing wildfires to grow and new ones to start, with gusty winds persisting amid unusually dry conditions.

officials reported Five big fires Throughout the Los Angeles area as of Friday morning. the Palisades fire In Pacific Palisades and Malibu it consumed more than 20,000 acres, instead Eaton fire In Altadena it has grown to over 10,000 acres. At least 10,000 buildings are believed to have been destroyed across Los Angeles, and 10 people were killed.

Favorable fire weather requires dry vegetation, low humidity and high winds. The combination of these components allows fires to easily ignite and spread quickly; It was this dangerous combination that allowed the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire to expand beyond any crew’s ability to control them earlier in the week.

Firefighters have since managed to do so It starts Fire controlWith the help of out-of-state reinforcements, the water was in the taps renewedAnd low wind speed. (In addition to helping fires spread quickly,… Santa Ana monsoon winds were severe earlier in the week (At times, firefighting aircraft have been prevented from working to control fires using water and fire-retardant chemicals.) The bad news is that those winds may now be about to kick in again — and that on all other fronts, conditions are unlikely to be any better in favor. Firefighters anytime soon.

What happens next with the weather?

the Storm Prediction CenterThe National Weather Service agency tasked with issuing fire weather forecasts says the danger of fires will remain high across Los Angeles heading into this weekend.

We could see two milder Santa Ana wind events in the coming days – one early Sunday and another possibly Tuesday. These storms could encourage the spread of existing fires and spark additional fires.

Santa Ana wind gusts occur when there is a difference in pressure between the Great Basin — the vast expanse of land in Nevada and Utah — and the coastal communities around Los Angeles.

Meteorologists often use the air pressure difference between Las Vegas and Los Angeles to predict these winds. The stronger pressure difference results in stronger winds rushing toward the coast, fueling existing wildfires. This is what they expect to see again in the coming days.

Vegetation will also remain exceptionally dry throughout the region. It’s the middle of the rainy season in Southern California now, and yet rain is nowhere to be found. After experiencing its third wettest February on record last year, Los Angeles International Airport has reported just 0.03 inches of rain since the beginning of last summer.

Although mid-January is peak time for the rainy season in Los Angeles, there is very little hope of heavy rain over the next week and a half. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that we have officially entered La Niña, a pattern of cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. Atmospheric changes in response to La Niña could force the jet stream to move northward over the eastern Pacific Ocean, shifting storms to Canada’s west coast instead of the western United States, starving states like California of rain.

In time, the dominant storm track across the Pacific Ocean will remain near the Gulf of Alaska through mid-January, providing few chances for precipitation to reach Southern California.

Meteorologists expect the weak La Niña to continue until the end of winter, with good chances that this pattern will fade in time for spring. Unfortunately, this timing may coincide with the beginning of the dry season in Southern California.

This does not mean that we may not see rain chances in the coming months. However, little or no rain until at least mid-January will keep vegetation exceptionally dry throughout the region. The continued risk of new fires and additional fire growth will depend on bouts of low humidity with gusty winds – and any additional Santa Ana wind events could be dangerous in the coming weeks.